#大户持仓动态 Recently, the movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are mainly driven by technical factors and internal liquidity, but do not overlook the upcoming major external events — they are very likely to directly trigger market volatility.

**US November CPI Data** is currently the most critical factor. It will be released on the evening of December 18, Beijing time, and will directly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy. Before and after the data release, the market often experiences rapid volume increases, sometimes even sweeping stop-loss orders, and short-term risk appetite is entirely determined by this set of numbers. This is the first trigger point that must be watched.

**Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision** follows closely. Scheduled around December 19, the market generally expects a potential rate hike. This will directly impact yen interest rate differentials, thereby disturbing global liquidity and putting potential pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The impact may not be immediately visible, but in the long run, it should not be underestimated.

**Geopolitical Situations** (Middle East conflicts, Gaza situation, etc.) still carry uncertainties, but currently, they are more macro background noise and have not yet become the dominant factor influencing the crypto market.

From a market structure perspective, we are still in the bottoming-out phase, and the short-term sideways correction with a bias towards weakness will continue. $95,000 is a key support/resistance level, and its performance at this point is highly significant.

The operational advice is straightforward: stay cautious during data release windows, prevent volatility from being amplified, and avoid risk transmission. Also, keep a close eye on the US stock market, especially tech stocks — they often lead and give early signals.

To put it simply, it’s not about the accuracy of market prediction now, but about risk control, patience, and disciplined execution. $BTC $ETH