#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Why do non-farm payroll data always move the crypto market? The underlying economic logic isn't that complicated

Every time the US releases non-farm employment data, the crypto world trembles. This is no coincidence — there is a complete transmission chain behind it.

**First link: The Federal Reserve follows non-farm data**

The Fed judges the economy's hot and cold mainly by employment numbers, unemployment rate, and similar figures. Strong data means a hot labor market, and the Fed may continue to raise interest rates or hold off on cutting rates, keeping dollar liquidity tightly in hand. At this point, funds in risk assets (including crypto) tend to flow into safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and the dollar.

Conversely, if non-farm payrolls are weak, and rate cuts are imminent, market liquidity loosens, and investors are more willing to put money into crypto.

**Second link: The US Dollar Index directly controls crypto prices**

Cryptocurrencies are priced in dollars. Good non-farm data → dollar appreciation → the USD value of $BTC, $ETH, and other coins is directly suppressed. Poor non-farm data → dollar depreciation → coins become relatively more expensive. This is the most direct impact.

**Third link: Economic expectations change investment sentiment**

When non-farm data is good, investors are more confident in the economic outlook, and some funds may shift toward the real economy or traditional markets like A-shares. But if economic data is weak, and it doesn't trigger recession fears, the market shifts from "risk aversion" to "seeking high returns," and crypto, as a high-risk, high-reward asset, tends to attract speculative capital.

**But don't be completely fooled by this logic**

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market itself far exceeds traditional finance. Regulatory actions, industry events, and market sentiment often have more influence on short-term trends than macroeconomic data. Non-farm payrolls are important, but not an absolute rule — the speculative nature of crypto and policy risks are the real factors that determine the long-term direction.