On December 19th, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike. This decision was already expected, but the question is not whether to raise rates but whether this move has prematurely broken market expectations.

Let's look at the history: In the past three rate hike cycles by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin's performance was not very ideal—

March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%
July 2024, retracement reached 30%
January 2025, dropped by 32%

One coincidence is just luck; two coincidences are a coincidence; three times with the same pattern make it hard to call luck. This pattern is right here, and whether December will see the same again is definitely worth pondering.

But the real danger now is not the news itself. The danger lies in the fact that too many people in the market have already taken the negative news as fully digested, and are starting to get excited prematurely, going all-in instead of finding the true support levels to gradually position themselves. This mindset is the easiest to cause a crash.

My principle is simple—do not predict the direction, only manage risk; do not fully commit, only keep enough ammunition. When the market gives clear signals and opportunities, I will be there. But until then, survival is the top priority. This is also the biggest difference between veterans and newcomers who have been in this market for years.

Whether you're currently trapped or confused, you're welcome to join the discussion. No one knows exactly where the support is at the start, but we can find it together. You and I are both dark horses in this game.