Market fluctuations, but the mindset can cut through the confusion.

Recently, opening the candlestick chart, a screen full of green can easily cause panic, with all kinds of voices saying "The bull market is over." It reminded me of that night in 2017—Bitcoin plummeted 20% in a single day, and the group chat was filled with "The bear market has arrived" messages. Yet I chose to add to my position. Three months later, it tripled in value.

People who get shaken out usually make the same mistake: only looking at short-term fluctuations of the candlestick chart, failing to see the deeper fundamentals supporting the market. After ten years of market ups and downs, I’ve developed a simple method: to judge whether it’s a true bear market, focus on three key indicators.

**Emotional swings and trend reversals are fundamentally different**

Last month, Bitcoin dropped from $108,000 to $96,000, causing an instant explosion in WeChat groups. Newbies panicked and sold, neighbors cleared their positions, and all kinds of "It’s settled" predictions emerged. Two weeks later? The market quietly rebounded to $102,000.

I’ve seen this panic play out too many times. A true bear market isn’t just about price decline; it’s about a complete reversal of supporting logic.

On May 19, 2021, there was a crash where Bitcoin halved in a day, and retail investors fled. But I noticed a detail: institutions were still buying through spot channels, and stablecoin liquidity remained ample. I judged this was just a healthy correction, and the market quickly hit new highs.

**The real bull market is supported by three pillars**

First, look at spot inflows. Since the launch of spot ETFs, traditional funds have had a formal channel to enter. Although recent signs show some capital outflow, in the long run, the smoothness of this channel determines the enthusiasm of incremental funds. Continuous institutional deployment speaks louder than a thousand words.

Second, on-chain activity. Metrics like stablecoin supply, exchange inflows and outflows, and the distribution of long-term holders—these data are more honest than sentiment. When big players are quietly accumulating while retail investors panic-sell, that contrast presents an opportunity.

Finally, policy expectations. The macro environment’s tolerance for risk assets directly influences capital risk appetite. That’s why every policy change triggers a highly sensitive market reaction.

The combination of mindset and data is much more reliable than pure technical analysis.