2025-12-18 00:20:14

The turning point of global liquidity is approaching. The Bank of Japan is set to implement aggressive rate hikes for the first time in thirty years—an unprecedented single increase of 75 basis points, which will directly impact global capital flows centered around yen arbitrage. The lessons from history are clear: whenever major central banks begin to tighten, Bitcoin usually faces a short-term retracement of 20%-30%.

The current situation is filled with contradictions. On one hand, large holders continue to accumulate coins, and institutional holdings are quietly reversing positions; on the other hand, the macro liquidity faucet is closing. Market sentiment is already tense, and the technical setup with a bearish alignment suggests that any support break could trigger a waterfall decline.

**Current Technical Snapshot:**

Bitcoin is trading around 86,108.4 USDT. Support is locked in the 86,055.9-86,201.0 USDT range, which faces little pressure. On the upside, resistance is at the 87,925.8-88,143.9 USDT zone, with a difficulty coefficient of 2.12 for突破.

**Trading Strategy Reference:**

Investors near the support zone can consider placing long orders to test the waters, but must strictly stop-loss if the support level is broken. The current market focus is not on the rebound height but on whether the bottom line can be held. The direction of central bank policies and liquidity movements will be the main points to watch next.

BTC-1,08%

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AlgoAlchemist

· 2025-12-20 21:35

If the Bank of Japan really takes this move, the leverage traders will be trembling... History always repeats itself. Big players are still accumulating, institutions are operating in reverse, this contrast is quite interesting. If the support level can't hold, it's game over, no other tricks. When the liquidity gate closes, it's all about the central bank's face. A 20% drop is no joke, have you seen it?

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DarkPoolWatcher

· 2025-12-19 06:20

The Bank of Japan's move is really fierce this time, directly breaking the rules of the arbitrage game. Where's the promised easing? It feels like the actions of big players and institutions are a bit strange—one is accumulating while the other is running. No wonder the sentiment is so tense. If the 86,000 level can't be held, prepare for a 20% drop. The technical chart shows a bearish arrangement that's a bit scary. When the central bank moves, everything moves. When liquidity is cut off, no one can escape. Trying to go long is okay, but you must keep your finger on the stop-loss button. Now is not the time to be greedy. The real focus is on the bottom support line—whether it breaks through or not depends on this wave.

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DeepRabbitHole

· 2025-12-18 00:50

The Bank of Japan's move is really aggressive, but to be honest, as long as big players are still accumulating coins, I don't quite buy the bearish narrative. --- It's a lesson from history and a waterfall decline; it feels like every time, the prediction is the same. --- Holding the line at 86055 is considered a win; everything else is just empty talk. --- Liquidity gate closed? Then why didn't the coin prices skyrocket during the easing period? It's a bit ironic. --- Institutions are operating in reverse while big players are still accumulating; doesn't that mean smart money is eating up the chips? --- Only a breakout above 88143 can be considered meaningful; discussing these now is too early. --- I understand that the central bank raising interest rates is to combat arbitrage, but why does everyone say that every time Bitcoin is about to fall, it's a good time to buy the dip and make money? --- Talking all sorts of nonsense is less reliable than honestly reading the K-line. --- The real focus is on when liquidity will flow back; those who are now stopping losses are all regretting it. --- If 86055 breaks, I give up; no more unnecessary talk.

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HallucinationGrower

· 2025-12-18 00:39

The Bank of Japan's recent move is really aggressive, directly cutting off the arbitrage route. It seems that big players are betting that the central bank will soften, but once the liquidity gate is closed, everything becomes pointless.

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 2025-12-18 00:31

The Bank of Japan's move looks like it's trying to break the arbitrage game... If the big players really stop hoarding, we're indeed in a precarious position around 86K. Are institutions secretly reversing their positions? They still have the nerve to call themselves institutions? They're probably all fleeing now. This isn't a rebound issue this time; if we can't hold the line, a waterfall will come. That's right. Let's wait and see the central bank's actions. Anyway, my stop-loss is already in place.

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SocialFiQueen

· 2025-12-18 00:29

The Bank of Japan's move of 75 basis points directly hits the core issue, and the arbitrage positions are almost all out of the market. Large investors pretend to be calm and hoard coins, while behind the scenes, institutions have already been shifting assets in the opposite direction. Everyone can see this conflicting tension. Holding the 86,000 level is already good; if it breaks below further, it's time to run.

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ProxyCollector

· 2025-12-18 00:23

The Bank of Japan's move is really ruthless; arbitrage positions are about to explode... Large holders are still accumulating at this time—are they confident or just gambling?

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