#NonfarmDataBeats The US November non-farm payroll data was officially released last night, showing a slight increase in employment that exceeded market expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a four-year high. Combined with October’s largest decline in non-farm employment in five years and stagnant retail sales, these conflicting data points triggered intense short-term volatility in the crypto market, though overall fluctuations remained relatively contained. Bitcoin initially surged to 88,000 before quickly retreating to the 86,000 support level, later rebounding to a daily high of 88,100. After a brief pullback, the price stabilized in a narrow range between 87,000 and 88,000 during early morning trading hours.

From a macro perspective, the mixed non-farm data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue its easing cycle. The probability of a rate cut in March next year has slightly increased, and combined with the dovish tone of the December FOMC meeting — which included a 25 basis point rate cut and the initiation of a modest balance sheet expansion — these easing expectations provided some support for Bitcoin’s price. However, traders should remain cautious, as risk-off sentiment is heightened by the approaching rate hike window from the Bank of Japan, which could suppress any sustained rebound momentum.
Additionally, Fed Vice Chairman Williams’ latest dovish statement emphasized upward risks to the employment market, further confirming the likelihood of policy easing and offering marginal support to market sentiment. These signals suggest that while the market may continue to see short-term volatility, the broader macro environment remains supportive of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the technical side, support from the lower Bollinger Band on Bitcoin’s daily chart effectively triggered a rebound. However, resistance formed by the moving average death cross remains significant. The four-hour MACD shows decreasing volume, indicating that rebound momentum is building, while the RSI is approaching overbought territory. Combined with gradually diminishing hourly momentum, these indicators suggest that a short-term rebound may face a correction and revert to a weak sideways movement before a clearer trend emerges.