#大户持仓动态 【2025 Financial Morning Briefing】Federal Reserve Policy Shift, Commodity Market Fluctuations, New Capital Market Developments

Signals of a dovish shift have emerged from the Federal Reserve personnel changes, with the new chair's statements fueling market expectations of rate cuts. Meanwhile, U.S. fiscal leaders have made bold promises to involve ordinary Americans in stock market investments. These policy signals are stacking up and reshaping global capital flows.

The precious metals market has shown unusual movements—silver has broken through its historical high, surpassing $66. This reflects concerns over inflation and also indicates investors' cautious attitude toward risk assets. Interestingly, the latest corporate survey from the Federal Reserve shows that tariff pressures continue to trouble various industries, with expected inflation around 4% next year. Fed Governor Waller explicitly stated that the current interest rate level is 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate, leaving room for future policy adjustments.

Geopolitically, the U.S. White House has announced that no new sanctions against Russia have been decided yet, while the U.S. and Russia plan to hold talks in Miami this weekend regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation. Additionally, reports indicate that the Venezuelan navy is escorting shipments of petroleum by-products, with energy geopolitics continuing to influence global market sentiment.

On the domestic financial front, the Ministry of Finance released an impressive report: from January to November 2025, securities transaction stamp duty revenue reached 185.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. This figure directly reflects the activity level of the A-share market. Internal consolidation within the securities industry is also progressing, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) officially finalizing the share exchange prices for its mergers with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong stock market’s tech IPO track remains hot, with MiniMax and Zhipu passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s review, and the race to become the first large model IPO entering the final stage.