#美联储政策与经济指标 Looking back on the past, I always feel that time flies. Over the years, I have witnessed many market ups and downs. Now, the Federal Reserve's policy direction finally shows a glimmer of hope. A 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2025, and possibly further reduction to around 3% in 2026, which reminds me of the days after the 2008 financial crisis.

Back then, quantitative easing was like a timely rain, and today we are finally in the first environment since early 2022 with net liquidity turning positive. The end of quantitative tightening, the reduction of the Treasury General Account plan, and the exhaustion of overnight reverse repos—all signs point to a more accommodative monetary environment.

This shift is not an overnight change but a controlled slowdown. Real interest rates have fallen from their peak but have not collapsed. This reminds me of the slow rate hike cycle in 2015-2016, during which the market also experienced a similar adjustment process.

Looking ahead to 2026, policies may shift from resistance to gentle support. Historical experience tells us that such an environment is usually favorable for long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, and gold. For digital assets, as long as there is solid structural demand, they may also迎来 new development opportunities.

However, we must not forget past lessons. Every policy cycle brings new challenges and opportunities. The key is to stay alert, neither blindly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. After all, the market is always changing, and only through continuous learning and adaptation can we stand undefeated in the waves of the future.