#大户持仓动态 The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut decision on December 10, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with a 25 basis point reduction each time. This is the third rate cut this year and marks the sixth consecutive adjustment since September. However, once the decision was announced, Trump openly expressed his dissatisfaction, directly stating that "the rate cut is far from enough and should be more aggressive."

This reflects a prolonged policy game. Trump has long criticized Fed Chair Powell's monetary policy, repeatedly stating that the pace of rate cuts is too slow and even hinting at considering replacing him. He insists that U.S. interest rates should be at the lowest levels globally, directly challenging the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve.

Notably, the focus has shifted to the potential successor to the Fed Chair. Trump revealed that he will soon meet with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, indicating the need to find someone "honest and with ideas on interest rates." Meanwhile, White House economic advisor Haskett publicly stated that the Fed still has ample room to cut rates, even implying that future single-rate cuts could reach 50 basis points.

Market expectations, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, show that the probability of maintaining current rates in January is as high as 75.6%, with only a 24.4% chance of a further 25 basis point cut. By March, the combined probability of a 25 basis point cut is about 44.4%, with a 46% chance of holding steady, and only a 9.5% chance of a large 50 basis point cut. This suggests that the market remains cautious about the Fed's future policy path.

This battle over interest rate policy directly impacts asset allocation logic. Expectations of rate cuts typically boost risk asset valuations and stimulate alternative investments, including digital assets; the opposite is also true. The policy inclination of the new chair will be a key variable in judging the market direction in 2025. What are your thoughts on the final outcome of this policy game?