What can you see from candlestick charts? The truly critical variables are brewing at the macro level. I’ve been in this circle for eight years and have always been cautious about predictions, but recently, the market forecast data is clear—the probability ranking of the new Federal Reserve Chair is already quite obvious. This is not just a fleeting excitement on social media; it’s a signal backed by real capital investment. Having experienced three complete bull and bear cycles, I dare say this signal is more impactful than a hundred positive news reports.

Novices might ask, it’s just a change of leadership, is it necessary to get so excited? The key lies in the operational logic of the Federal Reserve. The new appointee’s style is completely different from the previous hawkish ones—his priority is always to stabilize economic growth before controlling inflation.

Why is this so critical? I’ll directly state three core impacts:

First, the high-interest-rate environment should improve. Over the past two years, crypto assets have fallen dramatically, and the reason is simple— the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes pushed interest rates to historic highs. Money flowed into risk-free bonds, and who would dare to touch high-risk digital assets? Under the new policy, a gentle rate cut is highly likely, which lowers the "yield anchor" for capital, naturally increasing the relative attractiveness of the crypto market.

Second, the US dollar may weaken. During periods of dollar strength, global risk assets suffer, and the crypto market is especially affected. The new policy direction will weaken the dollar’s upward momentum, which is a real positive for alternative assets.

Third, I don’t need to say more—overall liquidity environment will become more relaxed.