Last night, Bitcoin's performance was highly volatile. At 10 PM, the price surged to around $90,000, but the rally was short-lived, falling back to the $86,000 level within less than two hours, with clearly insufficient rebound strength. Continuous selling pressure appeared on the market chart, indicating that the current bullish momentum is weakening, and the capacity for subsequent buy-in is poor.

The Bank of Japan's rate hike expectation has become a certainty, which will serve as an important short-term market variable. From the current situation, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will approach the previous high of 94,500 within this month, as that resistance zone is too heavy. In the medium term, close attention should be paid to the key support at 80,000, which acts as the bottom line for subsequent upward movement. If this support is effectively broken, a new downward cycle may begin, and the risks should be fully recognized.

The reference significance of market panic sentiment indicators has greatly diminished. During the last bear cycle, pessimistic expectations were pervasive for a long time, and the current cycle's performance is similarly consistent, with bearish sentiment still having room to spread further.

It is worth noting that although Bitcoin oscillated at high levels last night without breaking previous lows, the altcoin sector collectively declined. The short positions of large-cap tokens such as ZEC, ASTER, and HYPE continued to decrease, hitting new lows in this phase. These types of tokens have long-standing valuation bubbles, and the bubble squeezing is far from over. Further adjustments are expected to take time until valuations return to reasonable levels, and market participants' loss pressures may be further released.

In the future, focus on ETH's trend linkage and the market reaction to the implementation of Japan's rate hike, to seize phased opportunities.