Today's market is indeed interesting — this morning staged a reversal with a gap down followed by a rally, which was quite uplifting. But don't be fooled by this wave of gains, because the real "big test" is tomorrow.

**Unexpected Morning Rebound**

Although only one of the three major indices closed higher, individual stocks performed significantly better than the indices. This divergence itself is not a good sign — when the indices fall while individual stocks rise, it often indicates a lack of overall market consensus. Looking at the external markets, US stocks plunged, and Japanese and Korean indices are also in decline. Logically, we should follow the weakness. But the Hang Seng Index stubbornly turned from a gap down into a red close, which is the true driver behind the A-shares rally. This signals that internal funds are not entirely giving up; some are still bottom-fishing.

More interesting are the details of the market. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext outperform the Shanghai Composite, with small-cap stocks generally rallying—over 3,500 stocks are in the green. The military industry and aerospace sectors lead the charge, especially commercial aerospace, which has recent policy support. At first glance, it’s lively, but behind this "liveliness" lie problems — the hot spots are too scattered. Components, consumer electronics, batteries, and photovoltaics are declining, and most critically, brokerages continue to drag down the market. After the resumption, CICC has played no leading role. This shows that funds are running around chaotically, unable to form an effective force, making it naturally difficult to lift the indices.

**Why Caution Is Necessary in the Afternoon**

The core reason is simple: tomorrow is the delivery date.

This time window inherently acts as a "volatility amplifier." Regardless of external factors, market fluctuations tend to increase around the delivery date, with situations of both long and short squeezes emerging frequently. Major funds may adjust positions or lock in profits early to settle their accounts, especially when the market has already risen to relatively high levels today. If the market surges too high today, the risk of a sharp correction tomorrow increases — this is a historical pattern.

Additionally, trading volume is also worth monitoring. Although the morning looked lively, the volume did not keep pace. If in the afternoon we see a volume dry-up or sluggish trading, the foundation of this rebound will be very fragile. Relying solely on the morning’s sentiment cannot sustain a genuine rally.

**Can Hotspots Continue to Lead?**

Military and aerospace sectors led in the morning, but can this continue? The key in the afternoon is whether new, compelling main themes emerge to attract funds. For example, can large financials or core technology sectors step up to stabilize the situation? If the market only relies on sector rotation in the morning, it’s easy to run out of steam. Especially with brokerages still dragging behind as the "stabilizer," just pushing the indices higher is already a good outcome.

**Afternoon and Subsequent Trading Suggestions**

Probabilistically, the afternoon is more likely to be characterized by consolidation. If the market attempts to surge, it may face selling pressure. Under the pressure of the delivery date, the likelihood of a one-sided sharp rise is relatively low.

For those who already took profits in the morning, if the market weakens or volume diminishes in the afternoon, consider partially cashing out to lock in gains. This is not cowardice but a rational choice to protect capital during this high-risk period of the delivery day.

Avoid chasing after stocks that have already gained significantly. Observe more and act less; wait until after this critical point passes and the situation clarifies. If your technical skills are not deep enough, there’s no need to fuss at this stage.

**Final Summary**

The morning’s countertrend rally indeed shows the market’s resilience, which is commendable. But we must be clear-eyed about the huge uncertainties on delivery day, the scattered hot spots, and the continued drag from brokerages. Don’t be blinded by the superficial rise. Be cautious of a potential pullback or increased volatility in the afternoon, conserve your strength, and wait until after tomorrow to make plans. Safety always comes first.