Today (December 18th) is a critical moment. The US CPI data is about to be released, and the market has been waiting so long just to see this inflation report.

Honestly, Bitcoin's recent performance has been a bit frustrating. The price has been stuck below $90,000, fluctuating within the range of $87,500 to $94,500 for over a week, with trading volume also decreasing. Last week, the Fed's hawkish rate cut comments were still resonating, and many traders are feeling a bit hesitant, choosing to stand on the sidelines and wait for the big events to unfold.

Why is this CPI so important? The core issue is one— it determines how the market expects the Federal Reserve's next move. How the Fed plays it directly affects global liquidity, and this factor has decisive influence on the pricing of risk assets like Bitcoin.

There are two possibilities, two extreme directions:

If the CPI report exceeds expectations, then things could get serious. The Fed might take a firmer stance against inflation, delaying rate cuts, and market liquidity could tighten. Especially if core CPI remains stubbornly high around 3%, the stock market could come under pressure, and Bitcoin could suffer as well. There have been many cases in history where Bitcoin sharply dropped after CPI releases.

Conversely, if the CPI data falls short of expectations, the tone shifts. The market might gain confidence that the Fed will loosen monetary policy, and funds will naturally flow into high-risk, high-reward assets like Bitcoin. There have been instances before where better inflation data triggered Bitcoin rallies.

Interestingly, the volatility before the data release might all be a false alarm. The real direction can only be confirmed after the data is out. The current market calm often signals that a storm is coming soon.

What do you think? Will Bitcoin rise or fall at this critical juncture? Just a pure exchange of opinions—share your reasoning.

(Disclaimer: The above views are based on analysis of public market data and historical trends, and are not investment advice. Digital asset volatility is high; participation should be cautious.)