Many people die due to a misconception about probabilities.

Have you truly understood your own risk exposure? When buying Bitcoin, you're choosing from one of the few survivors; when buying altcoins, you're gambling on one of tens of thousands of casualties that might survive. These are fundamentally two different levels of game.

A few years ago, a friend of mine, during the last bull market in 2021, poured all his funds into a meme coin. You can imagine how aggressively he was shouting—starting with a hundredfold increase, aiming for the sky. And three months later? The coin's price plummeted by 95%, the exchange delisted it, leaving no chance to even run away. That’s the harsh reality of small-cap coins.

The harshest part of a bear market is never the decline itself but the liquidity gap. You can't even sell off your holdings.

Most people's logic is: small coins can multiply by 100x, while Bitcoin can at most multiply by 10x. This is brainwashing. Just calculate the risk-reward ratio and everything becomes clear—

**For Bitcoin**: Worst-case drop of 50-80%, bull markets can increase 5-10 times, with a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:5—that's a good deal.

**For small coins**: The risk is a 90% drop or even zeroing out (risk is infinitely large), and the potential return looks like 100x, but you have to be that one in ten thousand survivor. The actual risk-reward ratio approaches 0:1, basically a gamble.

Those who constantly hype stories of small coins making people rich are most likely just scything the weeds. Be cautious.