Will US Treasury yields rise? The 2026 forecast expects fluctuations between 4.0% and 4.5%

Question

【Crypto World】Seeing an interesting report prediction, next year the US 10-year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 4.0% and 4.5%, possibly pushing towards the upper limit in the second half of the year. What does this mean? Simply put, if the deficit outlook worsens, the yield could reach 4.5%.

This sounds like a purely macroeconomic issue, but for us crypto practitioners, it actually has a significant impact. Rising US Treasury yields usually trigger chain reactions—risk assets come under pressure, and capital market activity cools down. Imagine when the yield on “risk-free” assets like government bonds increases, a lot of funds will flow out of high-risk sectors (including the crypto market) and seek more stable returns.

So, this is not only a concern for economists but also a signal we need to watch closely, especially for those of us interested in capital flows and market cycles. Next year’s US Treasury trend could determine how much “hot money” risk assets can attract.

GhostAddressMiner · Accepted Answer

4.5% This number, I&#39;ve already seen the funds running on-chain... Will anyone really believe that government bonds are "risk-free"? Wake up!

WhaleWatcher · Answer

Is this the same macro narrative of cutting leeks again? When yields rise, they say funds are flowing out; when they fall, they say funds are flowing in. Anyway, in our crypto circle, we're just "bagholders."

Next year aiming for 4.5%? Then the Fed must be how to tinker with it, can interest rates go even higher?

Wait, this logic is a bit skewed—rising US debt yields don't necessarily mean cryptocurrencies have to fall; it could actually be a signal of rising inflation expectations.

The 4.0%-4.5% range, frankly, just means no one dares to bet—everyone is playing a probability game.

The worsening deficit issue has been talked about for nearly two months, yet the market still seems to be thriving? Don't always think about leaning towards the bears.

Hitting 4.5% in the second half of the year... if that really happens, we should be alert to a wave of liquidity issues, but it's too early to draw conclusions now.

StablecoinAnxiety · Answer

Here comes the macro narrative of chopping leeks again... If the US debt yield hits 4.5%, the crypto circle will have to share the leftovers.

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Wait, so the logic is that if yields rise, money should run away? Then why not just buy government bonds directly?

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4.5% is indeed a bit fierce, but I bet it won't be reached in the second half of the year.

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Basically, it's a cash shortage, right? The US has printed so much money, it still has to raise yields to suck blood.

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There might still be a chance before March next year, but once US debt soars, it's really time to hide.

MEV_Whisperer · Answer

Here comes the macro narrative of cutting leeks again. Is it over when US bonds hit 4.5%? Should we bottom fish or run away?

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Wait, if the yield hits 4.5%... capital flowing back into US bonds, that really hurts the coins we hold.

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Interesting, once again talking about how capital flows determine everything, but how many times has this rhetoric been accurate in history? Question mark.

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What does it mean when US bonds break below 4.5%? Is the US economy collapsing or is inflation continuing? Not clear.

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Alright, let's see the real performance in the second half of the year. At that time, we'll see how the FED plays its hand.

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Hot money flowing from the crypto circle into government bonds? Then we should see who is bottom fishing.

MetaLord420 · Answer

Coming to cut us again, huh? When US bonds rise, cryptocurrencies get affected.

With the yield soaring, hot money really can't run away.

Almost hitting 4.5%, how to play next year?

Basically, the US is bloodsucking, and we have to passively follow the wave.

Now, it's settled. Let's wait and see the bloodbath in the second half of next year.

BearWhisperGod · Answer

Another reason to be bearish, but honestly, if 4.5% really surges, our days will indeed be tough.

Not really rising? Feels like this argument has been going on forever... Forget it, let's wait and see the deficit data first.

The hot money flowing into this logic has become tiresome, but the question is, when will it actually flow out?

Hmm... if it really happens, we need to be mentally prepared in the second half of the year.

The relationship between US Treasury yields and crypto isn't that strong, feels like it's exaggerated.

As for next year, it's better to focus on the expected adjustments over the next two months.

Will US Treasury yields rise? The 2026 forecast expects fluctuations between 4.0% and 4.5%

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