The recent situation is becoming more and more interesting—the game of "who blinks first" between the Federal Reserve and Trump directly determines the rhythm of the upcoming crypto market.

First, let's look at the Treasury's predicament. Those zero-interest loans during the pandemic have now turned into high-interest debt, with soaring interest rates and increasing monthly payment pressures. The Federal Reserve appears independent on the surface but is actually delaying, playing psychological warfare—who gives in first loses. They only cut 25 basis points in December to the 3.5%-3.75% range; any hopes of an emergency cut? Dream on.

Trump's tactics are old tricks but still effective. Playing with fire and then putting out fires is his standard move—continued tariff hikes, public pressure on the Fed, immigration policies, and frequent geopolitical small moves. The goal is simple: create market volatility, attract funds into government bonds, force the Fed to cut rates, and conveniently harvest some votes.

The implications for the crypto space boil down to two outcomes:

One is that Trump's pressure works, the policy environment loosens, and there will be short-term celebration, but the momentum won't last, and a big drop could follow.

The other is that the Fed continues to hold firm, which means they will wear down retail investors first, and only when the true liquidity turning point arrives will they act.

What to do at this stage? With high volatility and many false breakouts, it's a frustrating phase. Both sides are still testing each other; Trump keeps making moves, and the Fed continues to defend. Cash on hand should be reserved, bullets shouldn't be fired prematurely. The best stance is to watch and wait. This is more exciting than a TV drama, and the ticket price is your own position.