Federal Reserve adjusts interest rate cut pace? Market signals revealed by October employment data

【BitPush】The Federal Reserve’s pace of rate cuts has become a market focus. According to UBS’s latest analysis, the employment data released this week exposed the soft spot of the US labor market—this signal is likely to give the Fed leverage to continue cutting rates early next year.

UBS Chief Economist Donovan candidly stated in a client report: there are many warning signals from this data. But there is a detail worth noting—due to the government shutdown causing a decline in survey response rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the accuracy of this data itself needs to be questioned.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Investment Strategist Ausenbaugh also noticed the anomalies in the October data. She believes that this report further confirms the market’s judgment: the Fed’s insurance-style rate cuts over the past few months are justified, bringing interest rates back to a relatively neutral level.

But here is a twist—she thinks a rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 might be appropriate, but for now, the economy is still relatively stable, and the Fed can sit tight and continue to observe how things develop. This patient attitude is exactly the signal the market has been waiting for.