Tonight at 21:30, US CPI data will be released. This is not just a set of economic figures but a turning point in global liquidity expectations.

The key signals in the market are already quite clear: Federal Reserve officials have been frequently hinting that the era of preemptive rate cuts is over. In other words, if we want to see easing policies again, it will only happen when the employment market experiences a substantial collapse.

What does this mean for digital assets? Liquidity expectations are systematically tightening.

Look at the numbers themselves. If CPI exceeds 3.1%, the market will immediately reprice: the rate cut cycle will be further away, slower, and more uncertain. The US dollar will flow back into safe-haven assets, risk assets will come under pressure, and high-liquidity assets like BTC will be hit hardest. Don’t think of BTC as a safe haven; it’s more like a barometer of liquidity.

But don’t be too optimistic in the opposite direction either. If the data is below expectations, gains won’t be very large because a mere decline in inflation isn’t enough. What the Fed truly wants to see is a synchronized improvement in employment data. This is called a double squeeze — good data isn’t good enough, and bad data can’t be too bad. The market will keep probing this gray area repeatedly.

In reality, the real trigger lies in the structural changes in the labor market behind core CPI and unemployment rates. The Fed is using policy data to shift focus, handing decision-making power over to data rather than subjective judgment. This is their tactic — blaming the data rather than being questioned for policy mistakes.

What should you think about operationally?

Don’t simply bet on the rise or fall of data; what you’re really betting on is the Fed’s bottom line being continuously tested. Keep enough ammunition: market volatility can trigger exchange delays instantly, and slippage can be everywhere. Without cash reserves, you become passive. Keep a close eye on ETH/BTC trends. Once the ratio declines, it indicates a comprehensive retreat in market risk appetite, and all on-chain assets should be cautious.

In the crypto market, making money isn’t about reading trends; it’s about understanding the expectation changes that most people overlook. Tonight could be the night before a storm, or it could be the last setup for a final surge. Don’t blindly chase gains or sell in panic. Wait patiently for opportunities to mature, and when you act, do so quickly, accurately, and steadily. Inflation is just surface-level; employment is the handle of the knife. The Fed holds this knife, and we are all on the tip. When others read the data, you need to understand what the hand holding the knife is thinking.