The policy dividends in the current crypto market have been fully digested, and the real confrontation is heating up—the policy game between the Federal Reserve and Trump is becoming the core driver of market volatility.

From the Federal Reserve's perspective, the stance is relatively conservative. Although the benchmark interest rate was slightly lowered to the 3.5%-3.75% range in December, there is no obvious room for further easing in the short term. It is more a contest of time and patience, with the Fed observing changes in fiscal and inflation data.

Trump's policy direction, on the other hand, is completely opposite. Through a series of measures such as tariff pressure, public comments on Fed decisions, and geopolitical conflicts, all aim toward a clear goal—breaking market expectations and pushing policy shifts. This aggressive style creates ongoing uncertainty.

The actual impact on the crypto market is very direct. In a high-interest-rate environment, the previous low-cost financing model is backfiring, with financing costs rising rapidly. In the short term, the market is more likely to fall into a phase of high volatility and repeated testing. Sentiment and news switch frequently, with false breakouts intertwined, easily causing positions to be repeatedly shaken out.

What should be the strategy at this moment? Instead of frequently chasing gains and cutting losses, it’s better to stay observant. The final outcome of this policy game is still unclear, and each person's position is essentially a ticket to participate in this game. Managing risk exposure and waiting for clearer policy signals is often a wiser choice.

The performance of mainstream coins like SOL, LUNA, ZEC during this period largely depends on shifts in macro expectations.