2025-12-18 08:41:19

#以太坊行情解读 $BTC $ETH $BNB

On-chain data has sent a signal: exchanges' Ethereum balances have just hit an 8-year low, and Bitcoin reserves have dropped to around 2.75 million coins—the "liquid supply" in the market is rapidly disappearing.

This isn't just small moves by retail investors. Whales and institutions are frantically accumulating, shifting large amounts into staking, locking, and cold wallets, with no intention of selling. Simultaneously, macro factors are at play: a major financial institution announced that starting in 2026, it will recommend Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to its wealth clients—Wall Street's gates are fully opening.

With supply drying up and capital flowing in, the classic bull market script is beginning to unfold. But here’s a harsh truth: **90% of retail investors lose money in a bull market**.

Why? Because a bull market won't save you; it only amplifies your human weaknesses. Panic-selling during dips, waiting for a correction during rallies—only to chase in at the top and end up holding the bag. Seeing others double their holdings and fantasizing about a turnaround, only to lose all your principal. This isn't investing; it's gambling.

Those who truly make money in a bull market rarely talk much. They understand cycles, ask questions about logic, and know when to hold and when to deploy. For most people who don't understand these principles, a bull market is ultimately just a machine that accelerates liquidation.

**The current steps are clear:**

Hold the core positions of mainstream coins (BTC, ETH, BNB), and buy the dips in batches. At the same time, make small early-stage ecosystem investments, focusing on projects with real applications and strong consensus.

Technological upgrades, supply exhaustion, macro environment—these factors are resonating and stacking together. Ethereum breaking through $8,500? It might just be the beginning. But the prerequisite is that you survive until then, not get wiped out in the volatility.

BTC-0,49%

ETH0,29%

BNB0,91%

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CascadingDipBuyer

· 2025-12-21 08:10

Hold onto mainstream tokens and stop messing around, this time is really different, Wall Street is coming. --- The part about 90% of retail investors losing money really hit me, I’m just that fool who chases when bullish. --- The increasing amount of coins in the cold wallet indicates what? Large investors are waiting to trap the retail investors. --- With supply shortages and institutions accumulating, it sounds like a precursor to the next big dump. --- I really don’t understand, buying the dip, in the end, still have to wait for a pullback to dare get on board, isn’t that contradictory? --- How come after 8 years low it still hasn’t risen? Should I wait or go all in now? My head is spinning. --- Stop with those flashy things, just a simple question: will entering the market now make me a sucker? --- Staking lock-up positions in cold wallets, to put it bluntly, it’s just large investors accumulating chips, how can small investors play this? --- Wall Street opens the floodgates? Feels like they’re digging a pit for retail investors, I’ve seen this trick before. --- I just want to know, with 2.75 million BTC and the new low of ETH, who should really be afraid?

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liquiditea_sipper

· 2025-12-20 10:58

90%亏钱这句话戳心了，我身边就有活生生的例子哈哈 --- Whales are absorbing, Wall Street is also here, retail investors are still struggling with the pullback? I've seen this script too many times --- Holding mainstream coins is real, small bets on the ecosystem are not a bad idea, the key is not to be blinded by FOMO --- Every time a bull market comes, I think of that sentence—your nightmare is someone else's entry opportunity --- To survive until the moment of 8500, you must first endure this round of volatility hell

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NoodlesOrTokens

· 2025-12-20 09:56

Those who cut losses are just digging their own graves. Institutions are accumulating stocks, and you're still debating whether prices will go up or down. The gap is so huge.

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ContractBugHunter

· 2025-12-20 06:24

90% of retail investors losing money really hit the mark. Just look at those who shout about copying trades every day in the group. --- Holding mainstream coins is fine, but the problem is how many people can truly avoid taking losses... --- Wall Street gates opening? Then be even more careful. Whoever runs first before institutions come in will profit. --- More and more coins are lying in cold wallets, indicating that big players are holding back their big moves. --- To make money, you have to endure more hardship than others. This market never owes anyone anything. --- I believe in supply exhaustion, but hearing about the 8500 target is just for fun; don’t take it seriously. --- You’re right—selling during dips and chasing highs during rallies perfectly illustrates self-liquidation. --- Small investments in early-stage projects sound tempting, but in reality, it’s just digging a hole for yourself. --- The signal of exchange balances hitting new lows is worth paying attention to, but don’t mythologize the data itself. --- Those who have made money are really silent now. The ones bragging every day in the group are mostly accounts with red lights.

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ConfusedWhale

· 2025-12-18 09:11

I'm puzzled by the 90% losing money, so how do the remaining 10% make a profit? --- Once Wall Street opens the floodgates, retail investors need to be cautious... I've seen this script too many times. --- Holding core positions is easy to say, but only during a real correction do you realize who can withstand the psychological pressure. --- Whales are accumulating while we're chasing highs, the gap is indeed a bit hopeless. --- 8500? Let's see if we can survive until then; this volatility is wearing out many people. --- A bull market is a test of human nature, see who can control their greed. --- By the way, how do you determine if you're in the 10% or 90%? Anyway, I'm definitely in the latter group.

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LiquidatedDreams

· 2025-12-18 09:10

90% of losing money really hit home, I was in that 90% last year hahaha --- Just hold onto mainstream coins, don't mess around with early ecosystem stuff --- Has Wall Street really opened up? Then retail investors need to be extra cautious --- Supply depletion + capital entering the market, this wave is indeed different, but we need to survive until 8500 --- Every time I hear this kind of argument, I think of the lesson from my last liquidation. Turns out I’m just too inexperienced --- What are we doing while whales are frantically accumulating? Still debating whether to buy the dip --- It sounds nice, but when volatility hits, who isn’t panicking? Everyone says they understand cycles, but they’re really just armchair strategists after the fact --- Dipping to add positions gradually is correct, but there’s always a lower dip, and that’s the frustrating part --- Money in a bull market has been taken by institutions, we can only sip the soup --- Ethereum at 8500? I just want to know how much principal I’ll have left by then

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ForkTongue

· 2025-12-18 09:04

90%亏钱这句话真戳心，我身边一堆人就这样没的。握住主流币确实是王道，别整那些花里胡哨的。 --- When Wall Street opens the gates, you should know the market trend. Institutions are stacking up, so what are we hesitating for? --- Basically, it's about living longer. All those big gambles eventually turn into electricity bills for mining farms. --- Watching whales accumulate tokens looks exciting, but when it’s your turn, you should learn not to look at the charts. Staring at the charts is the end of it. --- 8500 is just the beginning? Then I need to make sure I’m not part of that 90% of retail investors getting chopped up. It’s a bit risky. --- Buying the dip sounds simple, but when it really drops, which retail investors can hold on? I definitely can’t. --- Staking, cold wallets, not selling—these institutional tactics are beyond us. With such a small principal, how dare they short? --- Looks like a bull market is coming, but what I fear more is missing out. Compared to making money, losing money is secondary.

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ProposalManiac

· 2025-12-18 09:04

The part where 90% of retail investors lose money is really heartbreaking, and it refers to the imbalance in the game mechanism. Big players have information advantages, capital, and psychological preparation, while retail investors are just the active targets for being exploited—this is a classic case of incentive compatibility failure.

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ProveMyZK

· 2025-12-18 08:52

90% of retail investors losing money is a harsh truth. I am that unfortunate person who gets envious when others double their investments and then chases the high to take over... I originally wanted to hold BTC steadily, but when it rose, I started thinking about making quick profits. Surviving in a bull market is even harder than making money, and that's very true.

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LowCapGemHunter

· 2025-12-18 08:51

90% retail investors lose money, that's really a harsh statement. My buddies around me are all testing this law. Holding mainstream coins is indeed the right move, just worried about another wave of pump and dump. If ETH 8500 really comes, we'll see. The combo of whales accumulating and Wall Street entering the market does have some tricks, the supply chain is dead. In a bull market, the most tempting thing is to envy others' doubling profits. I’ve learned to be smart this time, but it’s a bit tough. The key is to stay alive, don’t get washed out by volatility—that’s the real truth.

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