Divergence in Rate Cuts, Super Cycle Battles, and the AI Frenzy: The 2025 Crypto Finale, Where Are the Opportunities in 2026?

The crypto market in 2025 is like a drama full of twists: the Federal Reserve cuts rates as scheduled but reveals rare internal disagreements; the market rebounds amid debates over "cycle failure"; on one side is the dawn of a "super cycle" mentioned by CZ, and on the other, a pessimistic forecast below $84,000 from Bloomberg analysts. Meanwhile, the integration of AI and crypto intensifies, global regulatory landscapes are reshuffling, and whales are quietly positioning amid volatility. Standing at the end of 2025, we analyze the core market trends and key outlooks for 2026 to help you see the boundaries of opportunity and risk amid complex information.
1. Macro Fog: Disagreements in Fed Rate Cuts and Market Direction Remain Unclear
Macroeconomic policy is always a "barometer" for the crypto market, but this time, the Fed's rate cut has left the market more confused. The Fed announced a 25 basis point cut, a widely expected easing signal, but for the first time in six years, a "three-vote opposition" appeared. This indicates internal disagreements within the Fed over monetary policy direction—some believe the economy needs further easing to support growth, while others worry that continued rate cuts could reignite inflation. Such disagreements make future policy directions unpredictable. Historical data shows Bitcoin prices have had a -90% strong negative correlation with Fed rates, so policy uncertainty undoubtedly increases market volatility. More critically, this rate cut triggered a "split interpretation" in the crypto market: short-term rebound but long-term divergence. Cycle analysts believe Bitcoin is finding a bottom and will enter its most bullish seasonal period; however, some experts question the validity of the "four-year cycle"—a rule once revered in the market, which may have become invalid under new regulatory and institutional environments. Industry leaders hold opposing views: CZ openly states the market may enter a "super cycle" breaking the previous cycle constraints; meanwhile, Bloomberg analysts cast doubt, predicting Bitcoin could fall below $84,000 by year-end, suggesting the anticipated "Santa rally" might not materialize.
2. Market Play: ETH Enters the Hit Zone, Whales Quietly Accumulate
Under the macro fog, capital is quietly shifting, and clear opportunity signals are emerging. First, Ethereum's prospects are widely optimistic. Multiple analyses indicate that under relatively loose expectations for China and the US, asset volatility has been suppressed. Although panic sentiment and capital recovery are incomplete, ETH has entered a "value hitting zone." On-chain data confirms this: ETH previously surged 40% in 72 hours, driven by whales accumulating heavily before the price spike—whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have increased holdings to the highest since March 2025. Institutions like BitM are also actively buying, believing Ethereum has bottomed out. During Bitcoin's sideways bottoming process, whales are also seizing the "discount season" to position. On-chain data shows whales have quietly increased holdings of XRP, ADA, UNI, AAVE, covering sectors like payments, Layer 1, DeFi, AI, and storage—indicating they are building positions in anticipation of a rebound. However, caution is needed: crypto treasury companies are caught in a "desperate fight," losing their bottom-finding ability. This is not just due to exhausted funds but also because the financing mechanism relying on premiums has become mechanically paralyzed during downturns, implying that market bottom recovery may take longer.
3. AI Frenzy: From Hot Funding to Practical Deployment, Payments as a Key Breakthrough
If any sector in crypto remained hot in 2025, it was the integration of AI and crypto (DeAI). Funding remains vigorous, exemplified by Surf AI, whose founder is also co-founder of Cyber, bringing industry halo. On the deployment side, focus is on "AI payments": the x402 protocol upgraded to V2, supporting multi-chain and compatible with traditional payment channels; OpenMind partnered with Circle to enable real-time AI Agent payments at thousands per second via x402. This makes x402 a hot commodity, as scalable AI Agent applications require efficient, secure payment solutions. In decentralized AI infrastructure, Talus launched an "on-chain" solution filling industry gaps, finding a feasible path amid DeAI's challenges, though the road for AI Agent decentralization remains long.
4. Global Map: New Hubs and Gray Areas Coexist Amid Regulatory Divergence
The global crypto regulatory landscape is undergoing profound change, with regions showing stark differences. Some areas are becoming new fertile grounds for crypto giants. The UAE, with clear regulations, sovereign fund support, and widespread crypto payments, has rapidly become a crypto hub connecting East and West, with Abu Dhabi gathering giants like bn, Tether, Circle, Ripple, earning the nickname "New Switzerland" of crypto. Brazil, Latin America's top crypto player, is actively pushing for a crypto powerhouse dream, becoming the main battlefield for Latin American digital assets. Russia, outside the SWIFT system, has formed a covert crypto economy centered on USDT, with mining, on-chain trading, and stablecoin inflows ranking among the top globally. On the other hand, risks in regulatory vacuum zones are emerging. Montenegro's OTC crypto trading falls into a "gray area," with cash transactions via Telegram groups and intermediaries, with annual volumes reaching millions of euros, and risks of "Xiqian" (hidden) transactions. Although legislation has begun, progress is slow. Notably, the US also signals a new stance: SEC chair predicts that within two years, the US financial markets may go on-chain, and DTCC will be allowed to custody tokenized stocks and other real-world assets (RWA) on blockchain—marking a significant step in traditional finance moving onto the chain. Circle plans to launch USDCx, supporting "bank-grade privacy," on the Aleo blockchain.
5. Industry Dynamics: Giants and Controversies Intertwined
Beyond market and sector changes, industry giants' movements and controversies also impact confidence and direction. Negative news includes: Tether-backed stablecoin blockchain Stable faced a setback upon launch, with prices plunging over 60%, and trust crisis due to "mouse warehouse" (small-scale manipulations). Despite USDT optimizing payments via Gas fees, its economic model faces doubts amid fierce competition; bn was embroiled in a scandal involving employees exploiting their positions for personal gain. On the positive side: bn announced relocating global operations to Abu Dhabi with full regulatory approval; Keel launched a $500 million plan to promote RWA on Solana; HK disclosed IPO details, planning to raise up to HKD 1.67 billion, with trading expected to start on December 17. Industry reflection continues; Aevo co-founder Ken Chan published a post criticizing that eight years of effort in crypto have been wasted, calling the industry the biggest casino in human history, diverging from the original intent of DeFi, revealing many practitioners' confusion and value collapse.
6. Outlook for 2026: a16z Outlines Four Major Trends, Driving Forces to Transform
Looking back at 2025, "Trump Effect," DAT, tokenized stocks, and "TACO" trading were the four keywords throughout the year, marking mainstream adoption. For 2026, institutions like a16z have provided clear trend predictions. Their four investment teams forecast seven future trends based on infrastructure, growth, healthcare, and interactive worlds, including application chain revival and AI-driven crypto networks. BitCIO also believes that the crypto market will be strong in 2026, but the driving forces have changed; we are now at the threshold of the next huge growth cycle. However, warning signals exist: some believe the "everything bubble" may burst in 2026, with the MOVE index as a key early warning indicator, urging investors to prepare for risks in advance.
Conclusion: Finding Certainty Amid Disagreement
The crypto market at the end of 2025 is full of divergence and uncertainty: unclear Fed policies, heated debates over Bitcoin cycles, industry opportunities with AI integration, and old issues like regulatory vacuum. Yet, amidst these disagreements, some definitive trends are emerging—ETH's value troughs, the practical prospects of AI payments, the continued push of RWA, and the rise of new hubs like the UAE. For investors, rather than fixating on whether a "super cycle" is coming, it’s better to focus on high-quality assets' pullback opportunities, sector trends with certainty, while remaining vigilant about regulatory risks and industry chaos. The crypto world of 2026 will inevitably be a mix of opportunities and challenges; only by understanding the underlying logic can one seize the initiative amid volatility.