#大户持仓动态 Recently, many people have been debating the timing of bottom-fishing, and I want to discuss the logic behind it.

Carefully observing this wave of market movements, you'll notice a pattern: institutions first induce a false breakout to create panic → drive the market up to absorb liquidity → sweep out losses and distribute. The retail investors who chase in the middle are basically becoming "fuel" for liquidity. Before the interest rate hike cycle truly takes effect, arbitrage institutions will definitely sell at high levels, so they will give the bulls hope, create the illusion of a rebound, and let the trend followers take the bait, each time trapping a wave of positions. This is how they smoothly transfer their holdings.

You ask me if now is a good time to bottom-fish? My advice is: don't act until the rate hike clearly starts to decline. Keep your hands steady and protect your principal—this is more important than anything else. The market has experienced a bloodbath, and many are caught in positions, but the more confused you are, the easier it is to act impulsively. Instead of waiting for a "Hail Mary" turnaround, it's better to study the institutions' rhythm carefully.

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