Bitcoin's Unusual Cycle: Why Traditional Bull Run Indicators Failed This Time

The greatest crypto bull run round may not follow the playbook we expected. Bitcoin’s current cycle has defied several long-standing market patterns, leaving traders questioning whether we’re witnessing an unconventional bull market or a transition into bear territory.

Traditional Bull Signals Largely Absent

Unlike previous cycles, this rally never delivered the euphoric, blow-off-top scenario that typically marks peak market sentiment. The absence of traditional bull market topping signals has been striking. BTC failed to trigger the traditional “rocket fuel” moments that characterized 2017 and 2021 rallies, suggesting a fundamentally different market dynamic is at play this time around.

But Bear Market Indicators Are Flashing Red

What’s particularly noteworthy is that several established bear market signals have activated:

• The 50-week moving average test: Bitcoin has closed below this critical level, with expectations for a second consecutive close below it this weekend. Historically, this has marked the beginning of bear markets.

• Death cross invalidation: The “death cross” normally signals bottoms and recovery points. This cycle, it failed to bounce—a classic bear market behavior we last saw in January 2022 when that bear market was just beginning.

Timing Paints a Familiar Pattern

From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin is tracking the same 4-year interval we’ve observed in every previous cycle, with Q4 consistency intact. This suggests the market’s internal clock remains synchronized, even as price action diverges from historical norms.

Recalibrating Expectations: A Different Type of Downturn?

The analyst consensus previously favored a top in December/January. However, market reality is redrawing that scenario. One plausible alternative: a bear market correction smaller than historical precedent (50% drawdown instead of 70%), followed by a recovery aligned with ISM business cycle timing. If this unfolds, expect consolidation through mid-to-late 2026, with a new peak potentially arriving in 2027—coinciding with periods when retail participants have sufficient capital to re-enter risk assets.

The ISM cycle suggests that future euphoria and genuine blow-off tops may correlate with broader economic expansion, not just crypto momentum alone. This would represent the greatest crypto bull run round’s evolution: a more measured cycle, better synchronized with macroeconomic fundamentals.