The recent round of interest rate hikes in Japan is basically a done deal. Honestly, from a monetary policy perspective, Japan's rate hikes have limited direct impact on BTC — after all, in the grand chessboard of global finance, the size of crypto assets is still not enough to be dictated by a single country's policies.

But do you know what the most heartbreaking thing is? Emotions.

Recently, the online buzz around "Japan rate hike" has exploded, reaching a nearly ten-year high. It's even crazier than the three hikes last year. This indicates one thing: the market is now extremely sensitive, and even the slightest movement can be amplified tenfold.

Looking back at history, during the periods after Japan's previous three rate hikes, the market mostly experienced declines or fluctuations. Although other factors also played a role, it's definitely not a coincidence.

Currently, the probability of Japan directly raising interest rates is almost 100%, just waiting for the official announcement. What we should really be cautious about is not the rate hike itself, but the emotional volcano triggered by it — that’s what can cause the most harm.