#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Tonight's CPI data release will directly determine the market's judgment of the Federal Reserve's direction, which will have a profound impact on global capital flows. The crypto circle especially cannot afford to miss this.

Let's look at three possible scenarios—

**CPI below expectations** — In this case, inflation is really cooling down, and the rate hike cycle may be coming to an end. The market begins to expect rate cuts. The US dollar will be suppressed, and the expectation of easing global liquidity will rise. Assets like $BTC with high beta will react strongly, presenting an opportunity for risk assets to recover.

**Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations** — Inflation hasn't truly softened yet, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue maintaining high interest rates, or even consider further tightening measures. A stronger dollar will tighten global liquidity, risk appetite will be suppressed, and $ETH and other cryptocurrencies are likely to come under pressure. At this point, the contraction of liquidity will propagate throughout the crypto space.

**If CPI meets expectations** — The market has basically digested this data, and short-term volatility may converge. Technical analysis and individual stock fundamentals will become the main driving forces. But don’t relax — even if the data meets expectations, small changes in details or the Fed’s forward guidance, even just a slight adjustment, could suddenly change market expectations.

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