#大户持仓动态 Tonight's CPI data release will basically set the tone for global liquidity. How important is this data for the crypto world? Extremely important.

**If CPI falls below expectations**
Signals of cooling inflation emerge, the rate hike cycle may end sooner, and the market begins to bet on rate cuts. The US dollar is pressured, expectations of loose liquidity rise, and risk assets immediately become volatile—cryptocurrencies, as high-beta assets, react most directly and usually see the sharpest gains.

**If CPI exceeds expectations**
Inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will need to continue holding high interest rates. Rates may stay higher for longer or even tighten further. The US dollar strengthens again, global liquidity is drained, risk appetite freezes, and the crypto market, along with other risk assets, gets suppressed.

**If CPI is in line with expectations**
The market has already priced it in; short-term volatility may be limited, and the specific trend depends on technical analysis and the fundamentals of each coin. But there's a detail—even if the overall data aligns with expectations, internal fluctuations in components or slight wording adjustments by the Federal Reserve can reverse expectations, so stay alert.

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