#大户持仓动态 The most dangerous thing in the market often happens at the moment when everyone is convinced beyond doubt.

When "certainty" becomes a trader's catchphrase, and "blindly profit" is widely spread, that is often the signal to hit the brakes. The essence of the crypto world and traditional financial markets is similar—they both revolve around hot topics, narratives, and market sentiment. On the surface, A-shares change themes, and the crypto space shifts narratives, but at the core, it's all about "expectation gaps."

Narratives in the market are usually divided into three levels.

**Level 1: New concepts, new stories.**
Things never encountered before naturally attract strong praise or criticism. Some shout scam, others bet on the future. Due to the lack of reference points, valuation ceilings don't exist, and the hype cycle is the longest—these often give rise to the biggest market movements.

**Level 2: Old logic, new packaging.**
Old arguments with a different phrasing can ride a wave of emotional dividends, but once the heat cools down, the truth is immediately exposed. Participation is possible, but you must buy in and sell out quickly—never hold on.

**Level 3: Overhyped, repeatedly recycled themes.**
No matter how many times they are packaged, they can't escape their fate—waiting only for the next sucker to take over. Stay away from these.

So, don't rush to dismiss new trends; the biggest opportunities in the market are often found where the controversy is fiercest. But there's a harsh reality: opportunities are fluid and always belong to those with keen instincts and quick reactions. Once most people have figured it out, all that's left is endless standing guard.

Understanding the rhythm is far more valuable than understanding the story.