2025-12-18 12:00:13

#大户持仓动态 $H's sharp decline mainly results from the combination of two factors: the expiration of the second phase of airdrop unlocks, leading to a large-scale sell-off by holders and a 35% drop; at the same time, the overall market is in a correction cycle, and the selling pressure from follow-up traders has further amplified the decline.

From a structural perspective, the peaks are continuously moving downward, and this signal is very clear—funds are gradually exiting the market. I was already warning at the time that rather than trying to bottom fish and go long, it’s better to follow the trend and set up short positions, which is the most probable direction.

The entry logic is actually not that complicated: wait for a rebound to a key level before acting, and once the support is broken, confirm the signal, with risk and stop-loss calculated in advance. Later, the market moved entirely according to this approach, heading downward with few surprises.

The essence of trading is not about guessing ups and downs, but about positioning yourself on the high-probability side in advance, letting the market trend verify your judgment. Sticking to this methodology, many times the results will align.

Recent notes: ICNT ACT ARC ALCH CYS PTB STABLE SOL BTC ETH

ICNT3,24%

ACT-0,1%

ARC-0,77%

ALCH2,2%

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MetaverseLandlord

· 2025-12-20 16:00

I've seen it coming for a long time, the airdrop unlock this wave is really a killer move. I didn't expect it to be so fierce, with 35% directly dumped. The signal of the high point moving down is too clear, you can hear the sound of funds fleeing. Instead of trying to catch the bottom and risking death, it's better to follow the trend and short, this is the way to survive. When it rebounds to the position, act; break the support and immediately run; never underestimate your stop-loss. Guessing ups and downs is purely gambling; sitting on the side with the higher probability is the key. Friends who followed all the way this time should have made money, the methodology is that simple.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 2025-12-20 14:36

Short positions are well buried, and those trying to buy the dip are all trapped. This is a probability game. --- A 35% drop is really painful, but the continuous decline from the highs is a clear signal. No wonder I should have been bearish long ago. --- Rebound at key levels and then act again. I accept this logic, but execution is often hindered by hesitation. --- Unlock潮+market correction double kill, holders are also forced to sell, which is a bit helpless. --- Set stop-losses early and clearly. This is the most critical point. Many people lose money because they fail to do this well. --- Let the market verify the judgment instead of the other way around. It sounds simple, but it's really hard to do. --- Do we still need to be bearish on SOL BTC? The bottom signal seems a bit blurry now. --- The logic for exiting funds is clear: it's indeed difficult to judge when to open a short after a rebound. --- Trading short in line with the trend is more reliable than catching longs, but mental preparation is essential.

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DaoDeveloper

· 2025-12-18 12:27

ngl the tokenomics design here is what kills most projects - you've got concentrated unlock schedules acting as a poor incentive mechanism... the game theory just doesn't work out when you stack emission events like that

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FlashLoanPhantom

· 2025-12-18 12:07

Short positions have been set up long ago, just waiting for this wave to come down, so satisfying. All the bottom-fishers are probably trapped now haha. The highs keep moving lower, yet they still dare to go long, serves them right. Waiting for a rebound to crash, there's still plenty of room. What you said is spot on, the key is execution, most people can't do it. This wave indeed followed logic, nothing unexpected. Such clear signals for exiting funds, yet people keep buying, really a bit… Crash at the rebound, it's that simple. The most probable side is the right path; those betting on a single direction all lose.

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BrokenYield

· 2025-12-18 12:05

ngl the whole "i called it" energy here is giving major survivorship bias vibes... 35% dump on unlock mechanics is textbook, yeah, but the smug retrospective analysis always hits different when you're watching from hindsight

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CryptoGoldmine

· 2025-12-18 12:05

Airdrop unlock and dump — this old trick. A 35% drop is actually a perfect profit-taking window. The key is whether the support level holds; if it doesn't, then continue to be bearish.

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StakoorNeverSleeps

· 2025-12-18 12:04

The short position indeed made a profit this wave, but I'm a bit itchy to add more after the rebound. This guy's logic isn't wrong; going with the trend is much more reliable than trying to catch the bottom. What does a 35% drop indicate? Retail investors are still buying in; the funds have already moved out. Waiting for a rebound at the key level to set up an ambush—it's easy to say but really requires resolve to execute. BTC is also testing support levels; the same strategy can be applied here.

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