#美联储降息预期升温 The Bank of Japan is holding a meeting these days, and the outcome will be clear on the 19th. My judgment is that the probability of a rate hike is alarmingly high; this thing is the hardest hammer hitting risk assets recently. The market has already digested part of the news yesterday, and with the CPI data at 9:30 tonight, the upcoming trend will be very wild.

Let's break down these two matters.

First, the rate decision meeting: Imagine a group of institutions that previously benefited from a cheap yen. They borrowed大量 yen, then exchanged it for dollars to buy high-yield assets (including cryptocurrencies). Now? If Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing will directly increase, and the yen will appreciate. That previous trade will no longer be profitable. As a result, these institutions will have to quickly sell other assets, convert back to yen to repay debts—that's a massive capital withdrawal.

Regarding CPI: The logic is as follows: the number reflects price increases or decreases. If inflation is low, the Federal Reserve's probability of cutting rates in January increases, the dollar depreciates, and money will flow into other high-yield assets; if inflation is high, the Fed might not cut rates, and capital will flow back into the dollar, draining from other assets.

So what to do now? Four words are enough—short on rallies.

Don't obsess over which coin to buy now, nor worry about missing out or being trapped. Overthinking only makes you more overwhelmed. See the big picture clearly, and let the market speak for itself.