Tonight and tomorrow, two key data releases could trigger market turbulence. Everyone should prepare psychologically in advance.

First, let's talk about the US. Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US will release the November CPI data. This report was supposed to come out in October, but due to the government shutdown, it has been delayed until now. The market has been waiting for this "late inflation signal." Currently, the consensus forecast is around a 3.1% year-over-year increase. It sounds unremarkable, but the key lies in the results:

If the actual number is truly below 3.1%, even dropping below 3%, then the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates next year will increase, and the "Christmas rally" at the end of the year will look more promising. Conversely, if it stays above 3%, the market will have to continue adapting to the situation of "high interest rates still around for a while." A detail worth noting is that this report will not include month-over-month data, which means there is more room for interpretation and the potential for greater volatility.

Next, look at the Bank of Japan. On December 19th at noon, they will announce their interest rate decision. The market is pretty certain that they will raise rates, and the most likely plan is to increase from the current 0.5% directly to 0.75%. It doesn't sound like much, but from another perspective, this is a level that Japan hasn't seen in 30 years since 1995.

The more interesting point is the Governor Ueda's speech at 2:30 PM. How will Ueda discuss the 2026 rate hike plan? Will his tone be hawkish or dovish? Especially regarding the "neutral interest rate" narrative—how will he explain it? This directly affects the yen's movement and, in turn, impacts global asset allocation. Therefore, these two releases are critical moments that traders must keep a close eye on, whether they are long or short.