#数字资产市场洞察 The recent market has indeed been lively, with $ETH experiencing significantly increased volatility. Both bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war at key levels of 120,000, 100,000, and 85,000, and it seems that neither side can gain the upper hand in the short term.

I took some time to analyze on-chain data, and a few signals are worth paying attention to: large fund addresses have continued to enter the market this week, but their buying pace has clearly slowed down; exchange balances have shown no abnormal fluctuations, and I haven't seen the concentrated transfers before a dump; importantly, near the key support levels, open interest contracts are heavily stacked, which aligns perfectly with the market's "defensive positioning" narrative.

From these clues, the market is currently in a stalemate—both sides are testing each other's bottom lines, but a decisive breakout has yet to occur. My prediction is that in the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate within this range, with the 85,000 level being tested repeatedly. If this level holds, the rebound will first depend on whether it can return to 100,000.

However, I must be honest: the implied volatility is stuck at 45%, which is not a small figure. It indicates that the market could experience sharp swings at any time. Don't be fooled into thinking that a couple of days of upward movement means the market is stable.

Since both sides are positioning, the smartest approach is to wait for a clear sign of weakness from one side before following up. This is called "going with the trend"—watching others dump, and when they look at the market, taking small positions to test. Over the past three months, my judgments at these key levels have generally not let me down, and this round of market also follows the same principle: stay disciplined, don’t be scared out by short-term volatility. Keep your bullets ready, and wait for a truly clear directional signal.