Last night, after the US stock market opened, Bitcoin briefly surged but quickly retreated as US stocks plunged. Essentially, this remains a volatility driven by sentiment.

Currently, the market's main focus is on US monetary policy and risk events, such as tonight's CPI and tomorrow's Japanese interest rate hike. However, these factors have limited impact on the current Federal Reserve policy, and market expectations have already been largely digested. Last night's pullback was more of a risk-avoidance move before data releases, not a sudden negative shock.

Despite the US dollar weakening and gold strengthening, which seems to support a bullish outlook, major technical indicators are clearly pointing downward. Looking at the trend at the end of 2021: Bitcoin experienced a prolonged high-level consolidation after peaking, many continued to be bullish, but as events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict occurred the following year, the main downtrend truly began — this is not a coincidence, but a direction already determined by cycles and structure.

Currently, every rapid rally is often a trap for trapping longs and then distributing, not a trend reversal. Until clear bottom signals appear, all rebounds should be viewed as short-term opportunities, and blindly chasing gains or heavily accumulating at the bottom is not advisable. #BTC