Non-farm payroll data just released, and today it's the CPI's turn. Let's quickly take a look at the possible trends.

Currently, the market generally expects the CPI to be 3.1%, but the key is whether this number ends up in the low 2s or stays in the 3s. This watershed is quite interesting—

If the CPI drops to 2.9% or below, it can be argued from a data perspective that overall inflation is under control, providing a stronger reason for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates in 2026. This would be a positive for risk assets.

Conversely, if the CPI sticks at 3.0% or even rebounds above 3.1%, the market will start to consider whether inflation is not as easy to suppress. In this case, the enthusiasm for rate cuts will cool down, U.S. Treasury yields might rise, and tech stocks sensitive to interest rates will naturally face pressure.

However, there's a detail worth noting: the impact of the previous government shutdown is still present, as the November data collection was mainly concentrated in the latter half of the month. Coincidentally, that period also coincided with Thanksgiving sales promotions, so price fluctuations in the first and second halves of the month were quite significant. In other words, this data may have some distortion.