The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has risen to 28.8%. How does the market interpret the easing expectations for 2026?

【ChainNews】Recently, the Federal Reserve’s policy movements have once again become the focus of market attention. According to the latest signals from federal funds rate futures, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has increased—traders now estimate a 28.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 26.6% before the inflation data was released.

What is behind this shift? In November, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year increase was lower than market expectations, giving more confidence to those advocating for rate cuts.

Looking further ahead, what about 2026? According to LSEG data, traders are betting on a total easing of about 64 basis points by the Federal Reserve for the entire year, slightly up from the previous 63 basis points. Although the change seems small, it reflects a subtle shift in the market’s real-time judgment of future inflation trends. For crypto assets, the Federal Reserve’s policy turning point often signifies a re-pricing of liquidity conditions, making these data changes worth continuous attention.