2025-12-18 17:21:02

December 19th, if the Bank of Japan officially raises interest rates to 0.75%, it will be a done deal. As a result, Weibo, Twitter, and Moments instantly exploded: "The bearish news has been priced in, it's time to buy the dip!" — but reality has never been so dramatic.

That common saying "When the bad news is fully priced in, it becomes good news" becomes poison in a market dominated by yen arbitrage trading. Looking back at Japan's three rate hikes in history, Bitcoin has never rebounded; instead, each time it has been worse: down 23%, 26%, and 31%. The pattern is very fixed — first pulling prices up to attract retail investors, then ruthlessly smashing the market.

The core issue isn't the rate hike itself, but that it opened the floodgates for global liquidity withdrawal. This process has only just begun.

On the surface, the market seems very quiet, but on-chain data is warning loudly: large transfers are becoming frequent, net inflows to exchanges hit a new high this month, and perpetual contract funding rates have turned negative — what does this mean? Smart money is systematically pulling out, while retail investors remain trapped in the "good news is coming" dream.

And there's an even harsher point: Japan isn't hiking rates alone this time; this is the first step toward policy normalization. Ueda and his team have already signaled that interest rates are still far from neutral, and further hikes are expected. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has been delaying rate cuts again and again. This mismatch — "Japan tightening, US easing but not convincingly" — will cause leveraged positions to keep liquidating for several weeks, or even longer.

So don't rush to shout about a reversal. The real "bad news is fully priced in" condition will only be met when three criteria are satisfied: yen arbitrage positions are completely cleared, leverage returns to a safe zone, and market sentiment hits bottom. Right now? It's only the first tile of the storm being knocked loose.

Ask yourself: when the whole world thinks this is an opportunity, who is actually selling?

BTC1,82%

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digital_archaeologist

· 2025-12-21 06:31

Smart money has already run away, while retail investors are still dreaming. --- Japan's continuous interest rate hikes have led to a worse and worse decline in Bitcoin, this tactic is really brilliant. --- The on-chain data is right here, with frequent large transfers and net inflows to exchanges reaching new highs, isn't this just the last dump before buying the dip? --- "When the unfavourable information is exhausted, it becomes favourable information," encountering this kind of yen arbitrage situation turns into a toxic chicken soup. --- The storm has just lifted the first tile, there is still more to come. --- When the whole world thinks this is an opportunity, take a look at who is dumping... just thinking about it is terrifying. --- Don't be deceived by the illusion of a pump, the real clearing has just begun. --- None of the three conditions have been met, calling for a reversal now seems a bit too early. --- The leverage ratio hasn't returned to a safe range, and market sentiment hasn't bottomed out, and you want to buy the dip? --- The US is dragging out interest rate cuts, while Japan is tightening, this kind of mismatch can seriously trap arbitrage positions.

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quietly_staking

· 2025-12-21 06:31

Smart money has run away, while retail investors are still daydreaming. They should have seen this trap long ago.

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ForkThisDAO

· 2025-12-21 01:34

Hmm... Another wave of "smart money" quietly running away, retail investors are still shouting about bottom fishing. --- When it comes to liquidation of arbitrage positions, on-chain data is much more credible than stories. --- Wait, the rate turned negative? Then someone is definitely dumping. --- Haha, when the whole world says the opportunity has arrived, I just know who is shorting. --- The yen arbitrage position isn't fully closed yet, and they're calling for a reversal. How are there still people falling for it? --- All the bad news is out... before it's all out, you have to thoroughly smash the leverage. --- The market is too quiet, and that's the feeling before a storm. --- It sounds like big players are shaking out the market, retail investors are trapped. Same old story. --- Japan is draining water, and the Federal Reserve isn't being effective again. This mismatch can't be fixed in the short term. --- Three conditions must be met to consider it a bottom? Then it might take a long time.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 2025-12-18 17:51

Smart money is fleeing, retail investors are still sleepwalking.

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RooftopVIP

· 2025-12-18 17:51

The smart money has already left, retail investors are still hoping for a reversal, this trick has been played out.

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LuckyHashValue

· 2025-12-18 17:48

Japan's interest rate hike, retail investors got caught again, old routine. --- Smart money has already run away, we're still dreaming of bottom-fishing, hilarious. --- This wave is really just the beginning, more rate hikes are coming, don't be too optimistic. --- When funding rates turn negative, you know big players are dumping, still dare to buy in? --- When the whole world says it's an opportunity, who's actually selling? Just think about it. --- Looking at perpetual contract data, smart money is withdrawing very quickly, and we're still foolishly waiting for a reversal. --- Japan is draining liquidity while the Fed is dragging its feet; this mismatch will last for a while, be mentally prepared. --- Don't listen to those nonsense about "bad news being exhausted," history repeats itself, each time more brutal. --- On-chain data is warning wildly, and some still dare to say this is the bottom? --- The first tile hasn't even been lifted, what reversal are you talking about?

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BearMarketSunriser

· 2025-12-18 17:38

Damn, it's the same old "sell the bottom after all the bad news is out" narrative again, always the same script. Retail investors are still dreaming; smart money has already quietly moved out. This time it's really not over. Japan is still going to raise interest rates, the tough days are just beginning.

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GateUser-5854de8b

· 2025-12-18 17:25

The smart money is already pulling out, while retail investors are still stuck in the bottom-fishing dream haha

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