2025-12-18 20:20:15

I recently reviewed industry data analysis on prediction markets and wanted to share some thoughts with everyone.

Prediction markets may be evolving into a tool that more closely reflects the future trajectory of events. This judgment is based on a set of data—less than 50 days after a leading prediction platform launched, its cumulative nominal trading volume has already surpassed $6.4 billion, with daily trading volumes frequently exceeding $200 million.

Many people view prediction markets as zero-sum games or simply as information aggregation tools. But I believe this understanding is not deep enough. The essence of prediction markets is to compress dispersed, ambiguous, and emotional judgments into a tradable asset.

In traditional markets, information flow, opinions, and trading are separate—news is news, analysis is analysis, and capital follows only at the end. But prediction market platforms combine these three elements in one place. They are not predicting "what will happen," but are calculating in real-time: what is the current market consensus probability that a certain event will occur.

In today's era, the macro environment is full of variables. Interest rate fluctuations, inflation pressures, employment data, policy changes—discussed daily, yet lacking a tool that can reflect market consensus changes in real-time over the long term. Prediction markets fill this gap by standardizing these macro variables into tradable assets, allowing judgments themselves to enter the market and be continuously corrected and optimized through ongoing capital flows.

Looking ahead, prediction markets may evolve along three directions:

First, scope expansion—from "Will a certain event happen?" to "Probability distribution of macro variables";

Second, functionality upgrade—from a simple "betting tool" to decision-making references for enterprises, organizations, and even governments;

Third, strategic positioning—to ultimately become a macro risk pricing system between information and capital, similar to a decentralized oracle.

If this logic holds, the true competitors of prediction markets are not Perp DEXs or other DeFi products, but the entire derivatives market and macro trading markets themselves.

Therefore, I currently tend to understand prediction markets this way: they may not always predict accurately, but at many critical moments, they might be the closest way we have to the true direction of an event's development.

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PortfolioAlert

· 2025-12-21 11:40

640 million in less than 50 days? This speed is really incredible, much faster than my Cryptocurrency Trading, haha --- I have to admit this metaphor about the Oracle Machine is spot on; it really feels like turning the market consensus into a transparent price signal. --- However, to be fair, whether it’s accurate or not still needs to be verified later; isn’t it too early to draw a conclusion now? --- The most outrageous thing is 200 million in a single day; how many people must be betting on this? Just thinking about it gives me a headache. --- Bro, this logical chain is a bit long, but the probability pricing definitely hits the nail on the head. --- To put it bluntly, it’s still information asymmetry causing chaos. The prediction market is trying to lay bare the "known secrets" to everyone, which is interesting. --- But why do I feel like many people are going to lose everything? So what if the predictions are accurate? If you can’t make money, it’s all in vain. --- The imaginative space of the decentralized oracle is indeed possible, but regulatory issues might choke it off first.

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GasGuru

· 2025-12-21 02:55

6.4 billion USD in 50 days, this speed is indeed outrageous, but we have to wait for a real big event to verify its accuracy. --- Wait, an oracle machine? It feels a bit exaggerated; why not align it with the traditional futures market? --- To put it bluntly, it's still information arbitrage, the eternal game of smart people vs. suckers. --- Sounds very appealing, but I just want to know what the real prediction accuracy rate is. --- Makes some sense, but in terms of macro pricing, it still seems easy to be manipulated by market makers. --- I like this logic; finally, someone sees that the prediction market is not just a gambling tool. --- Every day shouting for decentralized oracles, yet when I use it, there are still a lot of wrong information. --- 6.4 billion in volume is impressive, but what about the conversion rate? Most trades are probably just random throws. --- Calm down, if this thing can really serve as a decision-making reference, why hasn't the government used it yet? --- I think the key is liquidity; the current large trading volume is just due to novelty, let's wait and see.

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SolidityJester

· 2025-12-20 16:04

Uh, isn't this just a gambling tool with a different name? $6.4 billion poured in over two months—impressive how much they can boast about. — "Real-time market calculation—what do people believe in?" Basically, it's still about who has more money wins. Is this a consensus or a conspiracy? — Wait, are they really planning to let the government use this for decision-making? I just smile and stay silent. — The term "decentralized oracle"—I have to admit, it's brilliantly packaged. — But on second thought, if this thing can truly aggregate retail investors' wisdom, it could be interesting—provided it's not manipulated by big players. — $200 million in daily trading volume... here come the retail investors again. — Whether predictions are accurate or not doesn't matter; as long as someone profits from the spread. — Damn, this chain of logic is so well constructed that I almost believe it? — So essentially, it's just a zero-sum game plus an information tax. No problem with that.

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0xSherlock

· 2025-12-18 20:50

$6.4 billion in just 50 days? Damn, this growth rate is insane --- Basically turning market sentiment into tradable assets, pretty clever design --- Prediction markets vs derivatives markets, that comparison is a bit bold --- I'm curious if in the end it's just big funds messing things up, with retail investors' judgments getting drowned out --- At first glance, this logic sounds reasonable, but can we really trust the prediction accuracy, or is it just gambling on probabilities --- Decentralized oracle positioning might be a bit exaggerated, it still seems like whoever has more money gets to call the shots --- Reminds me of Augur's past experience, prediction markets are nothing new, now it's just about who can survive this wave --- Is government decision-making based on this approach feasible? It seems like countries are all wary of this thing --- $200 million in daily trading volume, how much of this is genuine information trading vs pure capital games --- Interesting, it essentially marketizes all variables, so the efficiency is definitely higher than traditional methods

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EntryPositionAnalyst

· 2025-12-18 20:42

$6.4 billion in 50 days, is this number real? Feels a bit exaggerated, huh --- Predictive markets becoming a macro pricing system? Sounds a bit over the top, still depends on how it’s applied in practice --- The core question is, does this thing really outperform traditional derivatives markets? Can't see it yet --- I think the key lies in liquidity and participant quality, not just piling up trading volume --- Compressing emotions into tradable assets, this idea is interesting but easy to manipulate --- If it can truly become a reference for government decision-making, then it really changes the game, but we're still a long way off --- The zero-sum game nature hasn't changed, don't overthink it, it's essentially gambling --- The comparison to the derivatives market is a bit exaggerated, let's see if the accuracy improves first --- $6.4 billion in 50 days, if this bubble bursts, it will be very ugly --- Want to ask, why isn't this logic adopted by mainstream financial markets? There must be some flaws, right

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VitaliksTwin

· 2025-12-18 20:41

64 billion dollars in 50 days? Damn, that growth rate is a bit outrageous. --- Honestly, these days everyone is shouting about oracles, but the ones that can actually make money are still those that align with market consensus. --- Wait, are you saying that prediction markets will eventually replace the derivatives market? That's overthinking it a bit, isn't it? --- The closest to the real direction? That's a pretty bold statement. We'll know next year when a bunch of predictions go bankrupt. --- Merging information flows is indeed impressive; no need to wait for the lagging news cycle anymore. --- Feels like an upgraded version of a casino, just a different name. --- I agree with the three directions, especially the government decision-making part. That really is the space with future potential. --- 50 days to reach 64 billion, I don't know if that's impressive or not, but one thing's for sure—there's definitely a bubble. --- Prediction markets ≠ derivatives markets. These two things are fundamentally different, right? --- Always making inaccurate predictions and still have the nerve to say it's the true direction? That's hilarious.

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On-ChainDiver

· 2025-12-18 20:21

$6.4 billion in 50 days? That data is a bit outrageous, it feels like funds are just gambling for excitement. Whether the prediction is accurate or not is secondary; the key is whether the liquidity is deep enough... That's still an issue. But on the other hand, this is definitely more reliable than looking at charts every day; the market's true intentions are clear at a glance. If this really becomes a reference for decision-making, should the government also get involved? That would be interesting.

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