The Bank of Japan's rate hike policy has officially been implemented, and the 20 trillion yen carry trade positions are facing re-pricing. This adjustment is not simply about rising or falling; the key lies in how the market digests the changes in liquidity.

Based on market dynamics, three main scenarios can be projected:

**Scenario 1: Moderate Rate Hike + Expectation Absorption (Probability 60%)**

The market has already fully priced in the policy before announcement. The rate hike becomes the final opportunity for a sell-off, after which the market begins to bottom out. Mainstream cryptocurrencies find support at key technical levels and then enter a sideways consolidation phase. In this case, a dollar-cost averaging strategy or holding a light position while observing is relatively safe.

**Scenario 2: Violent Liquidity Contraction (Probability 30%)**

If the rate hike exceeds expectations, carry trade positions will face large-scale liquidations. Risk assets will be sold off en masse, leading to a potential breakdown of support levels for mainstream coins, while altcoins may experience a collective crash. The most important thing in this scenario is survival; buying the dip opportunities will come again, but being deeply trapped makes it very difficult to escape.

**Scenario 3: Policy Shift and Expectation Reversal (Probability 10%)**

Once the market prices in a rate cut cycle, short positions will be countered. Mainstream cryptocurrencies will recover quickly, with strong assets leading the rally. However, such rallies tend to be rapid, and opportunities to enter are limited.

**Key Insights**

Rate hikes are just the fuse; the real determinant is how liquidity changes. Slow draining causes sideways grinding, violent draining directly kills valuations, and expectation reversals can trigger short squeezes.

**Common Trader’s Survival Checklist**

Avoid high leverage operations, do not blindly chase bottoms, and keep sufficient cash reserves to wait for clear signals. If you want to position for hot spots, focus on tokens with concentrated holdings and low Gas costs, such as Meme tokens, but always control your risk exposure.

A bull market is built by endurance, not by rushing. Adjust your positions flexibly based on market signals, and always prioritize survival.