The Bank of Japan's punch was heavier than you imagined.

The news of a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19th has been flying around for a while, but the real variable isn't "how much they increased," but rather the market's actual reaction last night. Was that wave of volatility the market fully digesting the expectations, or just the beginning? This will determine whether we eat the meat or get shaken up in the next half month.

Looking back at history makes it clear. Data doesn't lie—during the first three rate hike cycles of the Bank of Japan, mainstream cryptocurrencies didn't perform very well.

In March 2024, BTC dropped nearly 24%. How many late buyers were pressed to the ground? Can you imagine how that felt?

July was even more brutal. The decline approached 30%, and many couldn't withstand it and sold off in a panic. And what happened then? The bottom rebound train quickly left the station, leaving investors behind.

By January 2025, the decline exceeded 32%. At that time, the market was filled with despair, and jokes about "bloodbath small investors" were everywhere.

One or two times might be coincidence, but three times hitting the same pattern precisely? That's no accident; it's a pattern. Think again about those previous moves—each rate hike by the Bank of Japan concealed a squeeze on global liquidity. During periods of easing, hot money flooded into digital assets across borders; during tightening cycles, everything reverses. The rules of capital game are this cruel.

Now the question becomes very sharp: has this cycle already digested all the negatives? Or is it just beginning? The market's temperament is always unpredictable, but at least data can tell us where to look.