Market traders are pricing in a 28% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point in January, according to data from the prediction market Kalshi. The shifting odds reflect how closely the crypto market watches Fed decisions—rate cuts typically loosen liquidity conditions, which can fuel risk-on sentiment across digital assets. With inflation dynamics and employment data continuing to shape policy expectations, every basis point of potential easing is being dissected by traders. This kind of granular probability data has become essential for positioning ahead of major central bank moves.