Gate Founder: Bitcoin Halving Cycles Less Influential, Crypto Increasingly Tied to Global Markets

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Chinese Cryptocurrency Exchange Founder Responds to Claims That “Bitcoin’s Bear Market Has Arrived,” Shares What He Expects Original Link: Lin Han, founder of Gate, commented on the “is a bear market coming, or a bull market in motion?” debate, stating that the Bitcoin halving has become less influential compared to the past and that cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly integrated into the US stock market and the global macroeconomy.

Lin Han argued that the “four-year cycle” trend (Bitcoin halving), frequently cited in the crypto market, was more influential in the early stages, but today, due to the limited new supply, the halving’s impact has become “negligible.” According to Han, BTC no longer operates as a “self-contained ecosystem”; it is becoming part of a broader risk asset space that moves in tandem with the US stock market and the global economy.

Han stated that one of the previous major transition points came in 2020 with intra-sector dynamics such as the “Summer of DeFi,” but the crypto market cooled rapidly in 2022 as post-pandemic global economic conditions deteriorated. Describing 2022–2023 as relatively “cold” periods, Han noted that ETF approvals and expectations of economic recovery warmed the market again towards the end of 2023.

Lin Han argued that a sudden and deep bear market of the kind seen in past cycles is unlikely, stating that even in a pullback, a drop from the $100,000-$120,000 range to $80,000-$90,000 would still be “relatively high.” He also suggested that while there were reports of decreased volumes in November, his platform data indicated that the decline was limited.

According to Han, one of the main risks to watch for in the coming period is whether the “bubble” concern in AI investments will grow. Noting that there has been a large influx of capital into data centers and computing infrastructure this year, Han stated that the question of “is it a bubble?” has arisen due to the uncertainty surrounding profitability in some large infrastructure investments; despite the strong performance of infrastructure-focused companies like Nvidia, profitability in large-scale infrastructure projects can be more uncertain.