Interest rate cycles definitely play a role here, especially when you're dealing with the mechanics of running a global reserve currency. But that's only half the story. What really moves markets is collective behavior—the sentiment, the herd mentality, the way traders and investors react in unison. Policy shifts matter, sure, but how the crowd interprets and responds to those shifts? That's where the real volatility comes from. It's the interplay between structural factors and pure market psychology.