Mid-December market, the most intuitive feeling is one word—碎 (fragmented).

Yesterday's trend was highly polarized, with external tech taking a heavy hit and funds shifting into consumer and commercial aerospace sectors for grouping. Trading volume shrank significantly, and those chasing tech gains basically laid flat, just hoping to tough it out. But on the eve of the weekend, US tech stocks began to recover, Chinese concept stocks surged, A50 also gained momentum amid volatility, plus the imminent rate cut in Japan made market sentiment suddenly feel comfortable. The market is expected to see a rally, with tech stocks that were beaten down yesterday likely to rebound sharply, and overall sentiment should shift today.

The Baida stock best illustrates the situation. After turning from weak to strong in the early session, it stubbornly resisted divergence and hit the daily limit. However, in the afternoon, as the market plunged, funds directly sold off to realize gains. Although it barely held on, the overall trend was clearly weak. Coupled with today's serious abnormal movements, it’s understandable that funds exited early yesterday.

Its outlook today is actually quite low, but there’s also a possibility that aggressive funds will challenge the abnormal movements—after all, this market needs breakouts, and the higher the target, the more worth expecting. However, recent lessons are very clear: challenging abnormal movements is usually a dead end. So today, Baida has become a barometer: as long as it doesn’t open particularly weak, the short-term retail sentiment could switch between high and low, and a strong rebound at low levels might be seen. This is similar to the logic when Dongbai broke the board and Baida directly took over to make two consecutive boards.

Yonghui’s performance is also crucial. If it can stabilize the trend, retail stocks at least won’t be too bad, and as long as Baida doesn’t open with a limit-down, it still has the value of a relay leader with its first dark cloud. Conversely, if Yonghui continues to decline sharply, the entire retail sector will be at risk.

The commercial aerospace sector has actually seen a decent recovery, but the problem is that there are no more high-standard stocks left. In the afternoon, there was even a wave of profit-taking. Shengyang is the only second-board stock; its one-word limit yesterday with high volume was very obvious, and today also shows divergence expectations. Whether it can perform like Zaisheng, with a similar one-word start and concept of commercial aerospace, is worth watching—perhaps it will show similar performance. The most important thing to track is whether it can form a volume-supported breakout pattern in the early session.

Shunhao, as an old leader, performed the strongest, but basically it was a volume-increasing limit-up. If the intraday bidding isn’t strong enough, once the sector weakens, it’s very likely to peak at the open, and the risk of mid-course relay is quite high. Conversely, if it can open strongly with a one-word limit-up, it will significantly boost the entire commercial aerospace sector.

Western stocks, after consecutive positive lines at high levels, hit a strong limit-up, which indicates very strong momentum. If the commercial aerospace sector continues, it might even outperform Shunhao—after all, it’s at a new high. As long as the early session is strong enough, funds could continue to push higher.

The commercial aerospace sector has experienced nearly a month of continuous hype, but yesterday afternoon, Zhongjun Satellite directly broke the board, which is a clear sign of weakening. The performance in the early session the next day can determine life or death. If the performance is poor, the entire sector could end, and what follows will mostly be sporadic tail-end runs—like Pingtan, Hefu, and Haixia. Besides these three, other Fujian concepts have little participation value.

If the old cycle collectively cools off, new directions will definitely rise. Based on yesterday’s performance, pharmaceuticals might be a good target for funds. Luyan’s one-word limit was very strong; as long as it continues with large single orders, it will have a clear impact on the sector. Similarly, Meinian, which also hit a second board, has relay value—large gap-up bids are like grabbing shares directly, similar to Hualing’s one-word limit leading the China Super League.

Hefu also has a pharmaceutical concept and performed very strongly yesterday. But if this continues, it might prolong regulatory scrutiny. Referring to Pingtan’s trend, it might continue to break through the next day, but abnormal movements could also follow. A 20% increase over three days, and a further rise of more than 4 percentage points the next day, will trigger a reaction—depends on how funds choose. So for Hefu, this position might not be ideal for relay, and waiting might be wiser.

Pingtan and Hefu are two representatives of the Fujian concept crossing cycles. When the market is weak, funds tend to group around them—that’s the rhythm of December. Conversely, when the market improves, they tend to show less impressive performance. Recently, these two stocks have become increasingly independent: one remains alive, and even if the other pulls back, it won’t end easily; but if both fail together, it’s more likely to continue to be realized. For these two “monster stocks,” timing the relay is the most critical.

So today’s focus is very clear: can tech stocks really rebound? How will Baida and Yonghui perform in the early session? Is there still potential for commercial aerospace to continue? These questions will determine the short-term rhythm moving forward.