2025-12-19 01:21:59

Today, there is an event worth paying attention to during the trading session— the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision around 11:00. According to market expectations, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has already approached 99%, making it almost certain.

The key point here is that the yen, as the most mainstream carry trade currency globally, its interest rate increase is not considered a positive signal for the overall market liquidity environment. Higher yen interest rates may reduce the attractiveness of carry trades, which could trigger adjustments in capital flows.

However, this time, market participants have already priced in most of the negative factors, showing a high level of anticipation. As long as the Bank of Japan does not surprise the market with additional measures, the negative impact should not be particularly severe. The main focus remains on subsequent market reactions and liquidity trends.

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TxFailed

· 2025-12-20 06:52

ngl, the carry trade unwind is gonna be spicy if BOJ actually pulls the trigger. everyone's pricing it in but that's exactly when things go sideways... learned this the hard way with past rate calls tbh

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FlashLoanLarry

· 2025-12-19 01:52

I'm already tired of the yen interest rate carry trade; the market has already fully understood it, and there's nothing new. I'm just worried that Kuroda's speech might cause some trouble—that would be truly exciting.

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LuckyHashValue

· 2025-12-19 01:45

Damn, it's another arbitrage trade issue. The yen moves and everything else swings along. Let's wait and see if the central bank pulls any tricks. Once the expectations are digested, it shouldn't be too chaotic, but liquidity is really unpredictable. See you at 11:00 for the showdown. Let's see who can come out alive.

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