#以太坊行情解读 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The ripple effect of Japan's rate hike: the end of global cheap liquidity

This rate hike is definitely not just a unilateral move by the Bank of Japan. It directly cuts off the most important arbitrage source of international capital—the yen carry trade. Many institutions and retail investors who borrow yen to go long risk assets are being forced to face the same choice: sell cryptocurrencies and stocks to pay off debt.

How will the market interpret this liquidity withdrawal? I list three possible scenarios:

**Slow descent probability (50%)**
Funds are not fleeing in a hive but are withdrawing wave by wave, leading to a prolonged, frustrating downward trend. In this case, bottom fishing is like gambling; watching the trend without acting is the best strategy.

**Mass panic sell probability (40%)**
Once panic ignites, risk assets will experience indiscriminate selling. The three-word response at this point is: deleverage, hold cash, stay alive. Even with confidence in your holdings, you should leave yourself an exit.

**Rebound becoming real probability (10%)**
If the rate hike is actually very small, and the Federal Reserve shifts to an easing policy later, a violent rebound after the bearish sentiment clears could occur. But this is only a benefit for those already holding positions—chasing high with no position is a gambler's mentality.

In simple terms: the era of the cheapest borrowing worldwide is coming to an end, and market volatility will exponentially increase. Stay alert, manage risks well, and wait until this storm truly subsides before taking action.