#大户持仓动态 【Bank of Japan Rate Hike Imminent: How Are Major Institutions Interpreting the Next Steps?】

The market consensus is that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December. But the question is—what happens after that?

On this issue, opinions among major institutions vary, with some overlapping and some diverging. Wells Fargo and T. Rowe Price both expect further hikes next year. Wells Fargo plans to raise rates again in the third quarter, ultimately bringing the rate to 1%; T. Rowe Price is more aggressive, believing it may need two hikes. ANZ Bank is more conservative, expecting the next rate increase to be in April 2026, citing the need for more wage growth data.

What about the pace of rate hikes? JPMorgan believes it will adjust roughly every six months, but the actual timing depends on the government's macroeconomic stance. Investinglive is more pessimistic, thinking that Ueda and the BOJ are unlikely to adopt hawkish policies, with the realistic window for rate hikes pushed to October next year.

What is the key to deciding the timing of rate hikes? Morningstar points out that after easing trade uncertainties, wage growth momentum will be the main focus, but data on this won't be clear until March next year. Kantar Macro is more optimistic, believing that Japan’s latest CPI data has already signaled a green light for rate hikes—core inflation is expected to significantly exceed the BOJ’s current and next fiscal year forecasts.

Two institutions from the Netherlands also share similar views: Japan’s inflation exceeding historical targets, weakening political opposition, and strong exports are all reasons to raise rates. Rabobank predicts rates could reach 1% by July, and ING also has a positive outlook but worries that rising rates might cause Ueda and the BOJ to avoid sending too many hawkish signals.

Overall, the pace of the BOJ’s rate hikes next year is unlikely to be too aggressive, but it won’t stop either. $BTC The volatility of risk assets may be related to these policy adjustments—after all, the shift between easing and tightening in the global interest rate environment will always impact market liquidity.