Today is a critical moment—December 19, 2025, when the Bank of Japan(BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision. The market consensus is that interest rates will likely rise from 0.5% to 0.75%, which could trigger a global liquidity crunch and increase volatility in the crypto market. History tends to repeat itself; remember the last Fed tightening cycle when BTC was directly halved.

What does the current market look like? BTC is hovering around $85,500, with slight fluctuations over the past 24 hours. From a technical perspective, the RSI has already shown signs of being oversold, indicating that a rebound is gathering momentum.

Let's look at two possible scenarios. The first is a relatively moderate rate hike by the central bank—just 25 basis points. After the market digests this information, BTC may find a rebound opportunity, with the target range around $87,000 to $88,000. The second scenario is a more aggressive rate hike exceeding expectations. In this case, BTC might test the $84,000 support level in the short term, or even continue downward to $83,000.

How to operate specifically? There are three approaches. Conservative traders recommend waiting and observing until the decision is finalized—avoid heavy positions beforehand. Those bullish can consider building long positions in batches between $84,500 and $85,500, setting a stop loss at $83,800, with targets above $87,500. If someone is bearish, they can wait for BTC to break below $84,000 and then take a small short position, targeting $83,000 with a stop loss at $85,200.

The long-term logic remains unchanged—institutions continue to flow into BTC, and ETF support is still there. Reaching $90,000 this year is not just a dream. But given the current macro pressures, risk management should be the top priority.