#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 12.19 Crude Oil Market Analysis

Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the US taking a tougher stance on Russia and Venezuela, which introduces some uncertainties to crude oil exports. In the short term, oil prices do have an oversold rebound impulse. However, the issue is that the global crude oil market remains relatively well-supplied—OPEC+’s production cuts have not met expectations, US shale oil production has remained high, and coupled with a noticeable slowdown in global economic recovery, demand cannot support a sustained rally. These bearish factors stack up, so although prices have rebounded, there is no fundamental support for a reversal—more of a correction driven by sentiment. Will geopolitical conflicts escalate further? Will supply and demand dynamics see marginal improvement? These two points need to be closely monitored.

From a technical perspective:
On the hourly chart, the price has stabilized around 55.3-55.8, which is the previous support level during the consolidation phase and a key line of defense for short-term bulls.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is stuck in the 57.0-57.5 resistance zone, which is the recent rebound high and also corresponds to the middle band resistance of the Bollinger Bands. Breaking through this level will not be easy.

Overall, the pattern is a oversold rebound combined with consolidation, lacking a clear directional trend.

Trading suggestions:
Focus on buying on dips, with partial positions built around 55.8. If the price reaches 57.3, consider adding positions depending on the situation. Set a stop loss at 6 points, and target the 56.5-57.0 range. For short positions, wait until there are clear signs of resistance being pressured before following up; real-time signals will be provided during trading. $BTC $ETH $BNB