#数字资产市场洞察 Rebound Trap Warning! BTC 1-Hour Chart Technicals Reveal Short-Term Deception, Retail Investors Should Not Chase

Yesterday, I kept an eye on the BTC 1-hour chart and noticed some uncomfortable details. This rally looks mild, but the risks are deeply hidden.

First, the technical indicators: the Bollinger Bands have tightened, volatility has significantly compressed, which usually indicates that the direction is about to become clear— but the problem is that the candlesticks were pressed down by the upper band after a surge, failing to break through. The MACD performance is even worse; the DIF is completely suppressed by DEA, and the green bars are still expanding, indicating that the bearish momentum has not weakened at all.

After the price dropped from 90363 to find support at 87011, it seems to hold, but trading volume has shrunk to almost nothing. Such a rebound under this volume is purely a weak retracement. On-chain data also confirms this: large addresses show no signs of movement, and exchanges continue to net inflow, meaning selling pressure has not been alleviated. The news sentiment is basically blank; no substantial positive news can be seen.

Frankly, short-term risks are hard to contain unless there is a volume breakout above 88000 and it stabilizes. Otherwise, the downward trend is unlikely to change. Many are calling for a bottom now, but that’s betting against the trend. I advise everyone not to participate. Until the trend truly reverses, it’s better to miss the opportunity than to trade against it.

Trading advice: continue holding the short positions established earlier. If the rebound reaches 87500 and cannot break through, consider adding to your short positions, with a stop loss at 88500. If the price breaks below 86500, the next target is around 85000.

The market never cares about stubborn traders; I am just sticking to the technicals. When the real downtrend arrives, and you look back at this moment, you will understand why technical analysis is so important. $BTC