After multiple rounds of unexpected fluctuations, my understanding of trading has undergone a fundamental transformation. Instead of chasing a sky-high 125x leverage with a full position, I now prioritize survival, capital preservation, and steady growth. This is not a lack of awareness, but experience has given me a different weighting of options.

Indeed, some in the market are willing to bet on a reverse trend after Japan's rate hike, hoping for an obscure turnaround to trigger a bull market. This is freedom, and I respect it. But my risk warning comes from another perspective: since the potential negative news is already known, why gamble on the chance of a surprising turn? Missing out on three days of market movement might cost only a few thousand points, but a misjudgment could lead to a significant loss of principal.

The key lies in subsequent observation. The trend on Saturday and Sunday will determine my decision direction. If the weekend market shows upward, downward, or sideways movement, and the Sunday night line continues to decline, then a rebound on the 22nd daily chart and a secondary retest in the evening would make this rhythm very reasonable — confirming my risk warning. Conversely, if the Sunday night line keeps rising, the probability of a rebound on the daily chart decreases, and I can wait for the wave caused by the Christmas holiday effect.

My operational bottom line is very clear: as long as the Nikkei does not trigger a circuit breaker, I stick to the ant-sized position strategy. This is not conservatism, but respect for uncertainty. The market will always present opportunities; the key is to survive until that moment.