2025-12-19 07:41:27

#BTC资金流动性 $ETH Many people in the market have been saying these days that the rate hike is coming and the market will crash, presenting a buying opportunity.

But it would be too simple if it were that easy. History shows us that when the rate hike in Japan actually takes effect, it usually doesn't immediately cause a huge crash or panic sell-off.

The reason is quite straightforward—the reaction time on the Japanese side is delayed. The true explosion of market sentiment and the real downward trend usually happen after a delay of one or two days, or even only start to unfold next week.

If you rush in today to buy the dip, you'll often end up being the one taking the hit. Market rhythm is never a straightforward story of "a quick bottom followed by a rebound." A more realistic pattern is: first a small shock, a brief pause, then a slow decline, and finally entering a genuine recovery phase—this recovery cycle typically takes three to four weeks to complete.

Looking at today's rhythm, the logic still follows yesterday's pattern—during the day, rebound to chase high and short, then in the evening, follow the rhythm to sell off and take profits. This way, you can steadily follow the trend. Don't bet on the big direction; just follow the market's breathing. That's the most stable and least risky approach at this stage.

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 2025-12-22 07:29

Ha, here we go again? Last time it was the same story with the rate hike, and what happened... Don't talk to me about time lag, when it really crashes, you can't react at all. I've heard enough of this cycle theory, in any case, I'm always the one getting trapped. Breathing with the market? I breathe and lose, breathe and gain, it's hilarious. With such big movements in Japan, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are shaking, can BTC still be stable? Trust you? Not a chance.

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ser_ngmi

· 2025-12-19 18:01

Still picking up the knife there, really don't rush to bottom fish Eh, Japanese people's reaction time is truly ridiculous, they have to wait a day or two before starting to buy Just follow the market’s rhythm, don’t think a rebound will happen from just one needle, that’s too naive The repair period is three to four weeks, and this time is no exception White盘 high position short in the evening session to cut profits, the strategy is just so rigid

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GasFeeLady

· 2025-12-19 08:12

ngl, the timing arbitrage on japan rate drops is literally just another gas optimization problem tbh—most degens don't even realize they're frontrunning their own liquidations lol. that lag window? it's your mev protection if you actually wait for it, but nobody has the patience anymore smh

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GovernancePretender

· 2025-12-19 08:08

Here we go again, trying to fool people into buying the dip. Haven't enough people been fooled this year? --- This "time difference" theory has been heard a hundred times, but what’s the result? --- Following the market’s breathing? Breathing until bankruptcy, right? --- Japan’s interest rate hike is indeed easy to get wrong, but your analysis is too textbook. --- A repair period of three or four weeks, so if I enter now, isn’t that just giving away money for free? Or should I wait and see? --- Basically, it’s a gamble on probabilities. Who can guarantee this time won’t just break through the bottom? --- I just want to know how those who said this last time are doing now. --- "Steadily riding the rhythm," saying that every day—what can that possibly achieve? --- Others take the hit, I take the hit too. If this time isn’t different, I’ll admit defeat. --- No one can truly predict the market; everyone’s just armchair quarterbacks after the fact.

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RugPullProphet

· 2025-12-19 08:05

Another argument of "I understand the time difference," sounds reasonable but when it comes to critical moments, it's still a matter of luck. Everyone says not to take the knife, but there are many who turn around and rush in. Don't deceive yourself. I've heard the "follow the breath" approach too many times. When next week really hits, will you panic or not? Time difference, repair cycle, eating the rhythm... They sound nice, but frankly, no one knows when something will go wrong. I'll trust you once, anyway I've been caught so many times before, one more time doesn't matter.

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BoredWatcher

· 2025-12-19 08:02

It's time to take another hit, brothers, you need to wake up. Remember the last time Japan's interest rate issue, it directly wiped out many bottom-fishers. Just follow the market’s rhythm, don't gamble blindly on the direction. It will take three to five weeks for a real recovery, so what's the rush? Go short during the day, take profits in the evening—this rhythm feels comfortable.

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